726
FXUS63 KEAX 232340
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..00Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SPORADIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS (LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS) ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MO.
- SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH A
SLOWLY FORMING LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST RESULT IN A FAIRLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION KEEPS THINGS GENERALLY UNSTABLE AND THE
KINEMATIC PICTURE OF THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST CONTAINS
JUST ENOUGH SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED ALONG A CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS NE KS AND FAR NW MO.
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST, THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SLOWLY
WORKS THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECENT
CONVERGENCE, BROAD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, AND JUST ENOUGH SHEAR IS
ENABLING THESE STORMS TO FORM AND BUILD RELATIVELY QUICKLY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS NOT QUITE ENOUGH SHEAR OUT THERE TO MAINTAIN STORM
INTENSITY SO THEY ARE FALLING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY ARE FORMING. AT
PEAK INTENSITY, LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
ALL POSSIBLE. THE GENERAL WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION OF STORMS
INTRODUCES SHORT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
THE SHORT TERM EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
GIVEN THE MARGINALLY CONVECTIVE BROAD SCALE ENVIRONMENT. LAST
NIGHT'S EXTENDED HRRR PROPOSED A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH
FAR NE KS AND NW MO. THIS MORNING'S EXTENDED HRRR NOW TAKES THOSE
STORMS STRAIGHT TO FT. SMITH, AR. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE RESULT OF TWO
THINGS, A DIVERGENCE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESS, AND A RECEDING OF CAPE
THROUGH THE EVENING. MORNING GUIDANCE PROPOSED THAT THESE AFTERNOON
STORMS WOULD HAVE MORE MCS CHARACTERISTICS AND FOLLOW 1000-500MB
THICKNESS LINES. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE; ALTHOUGH,
UNSURPRISINGLY, THE REAL WORLD RESULT IS A MIXTURE OF BOTH THIS
SOLUTIONS. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS NE KS LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWING
THE NE DIVERGENCE OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS LINES AND TRACK INTO
FAR NW MO. AGAIN, THE BROAD INSTABILITY MEANS THAT STORMS COULD
EXPAND AND REACH ALL THE WAY INTO THE KC METRO; HOWEVER, SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING LIKELY STABILIZED MANY AREAS BETWEEN US-36 AND
I-70. MUCAPE IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE SOUTHWARD; HASTENING AFTER
SUNSET. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE COMPLEX WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET.
ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KS COULD POTENTIALLY ORGANIZE
INTO ANOTHER MCS WHICH PROPAGATES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OK
OVERNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BYPASS OUR CWA TO THE SOUTH
AS IT FOLLOWS THE NW TO SE ORIENTED THICKNESS LINES AS WELL AS THE
SAGGING MUCAPE. BROADSCALE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
AND THE ANTECEDENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO KEEP
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ZOOMING OUT, THE 850MB SYNOPTIC PICTURE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS MAINTAINS THE
FLOW OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION KEEP SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SHALLOW 500MB RIDGE AND
BROADER 850MB HIGH CLEAR THINGS OUT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK BEGINS, A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS BOOSTING THE FLOW OF WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RESULTING FRONTOGENESIS STRETCH FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH NORTH TEXAS PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR ANOTHER POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, BUT EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. STORM ORGANIZATION
LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MO AT THIS TIME;
HOWEVER, VARIATIONS IN THE FORECAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS AREA
WESTWARD.
LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED, THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE. MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PRESENT SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. OF COURSE, THE RESULTS OF ONGOING WEATHER AND THE
BROADSCALE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE
IN THE WEATHER OUTLOOK LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
MESSY TAF PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAIN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE,
CLUSTER OF STORMS PROGRESSING TOWARD THE KC METRO TAF SITES AND
WILL AFFECT THEM WITH PERIODS OF TSRA. DO HAVE BEST TIMED
ESTIMATES IN TAF PERIOD. BY AROUND 03Z, ACTIVITY WANES FOR A
WHILE, POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDER APPEARS BEST
IN/AROUND KSTJ AND HAVE THAT WITHIN TAF. BY TOMORROW
AROUND/AFTER18Z, ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA,
BUT POTENTIALLY MUCH LIKE THIS AFTERNOON, UNORGANIZED AND HARD
TO PREDICT COVERAGE AREA. DO HAVE PROB30S TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL AT THE MOMENT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PESEL
AVIATION...CURTIS
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