019
FXUS63 KEAX 240844
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SPORADIC SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY; POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO MINIMAL
FLOODING MAINLY FOR WESTERN MO
- LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW; DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND
- A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
A SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. HAS RESULTED
IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT ON ITS
HEELS, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. MEAGER SHEAR
(BELOW 25 KTS) AND CAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG MOSTLY DISPELS
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM. HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE MAIN SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN EJECTING THESE SHORTWAVES FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAS
AIDED IN MOISTURE INFLUX THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THIS IS REFLECTED IN
PWATS RANGING FROM 1.1-1.3 INCHES WHICH HAPPENS TO EXCEED THE
THE PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS HELPS SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IF STORMS ARE LESS PROGRESSIVE.
WPC HAS PLACED THE WESTERN-MOST MISSOURI COUNTIES AND EASTERN
KANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TOMORROW. THE
LREF 24 HR PRECIP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN HIGHLIGHTING AREAS
NEAR MARYVILLE GETTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. A POTENTIAL FOR
MINIMAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP. STORM
TOTALS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF MISSOURI THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON GET AS HIGH AS AN INCH AND A HALF. STORM TOTALS
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH TO AROUND HALF AN INCH ALONG I-35. LIGHT,
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE IN THE
60S AND 70S.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS PRODUCED A SURFACE HIGH THAT
SETTLES IN THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY MONDAY. A FILLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S WITH A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE.
THIS WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST
RESULTING IN RETURNING PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE HIGHLY-SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SPC HAS UPGRADED THE SEVERE RISK FROM 15% TO 30% FOR
MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
MULTIPLE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
WITH EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAVING WOUND DOWN, QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THE LLJ MAY AFFECT KSTJ, BUT LIMITED CONFIDENCE.
OTHERWISE, LARGELY QUIET UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED/POPCORN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY, HAVE GONE
WITH PROB30 MENTIONS ACROSS THE SITES. NOT LONG AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD, ADDITIONAL AND MORE WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS A BOUNDARY DROPS
ACROSS THE SITES FROM THE NW.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...CURTIS
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