292
FXUS63 KEAX 242315
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
615 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
..UPDATED 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SPORADIC SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY; POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO MINIMAL
FLOODING MAINLY FOR WESTERN MO
- LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW; DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND
- A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED
UPPER AND MID LEVEL PATTERN AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY, MORNING ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY DWINDLED ACROSS THE AREA,
BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI. WITH WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION, EXPECT
THIS TO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 6PM. INITIALLY,
SOME STRONGER STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH ISOLATED STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, HOW LONG THE SEVERE
THREAT LINGERS IS STILL IN QUESTION WITH CAPE DWINDLING TO
AROUND 500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS TONIGHT. WHAT IS
MORE CERTAIN IS THAT STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUED OVER AN INCH IN NORTHERN MO.
WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS LOOK UNLIKELY, AN ISOLATED
RISK IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREA THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ON FRIDAY, STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING AS THE FINAL WAVE PUSHES EAST, FINALLY
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHORTWAVE PARADE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS
PAST WEEK. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AIDING IN MILD LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
60S.
RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO THE
RETURN OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND EVEN LOW 80S. ATTENTION WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY. AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALREADY OUTLINED A 30% CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO NEBRASKA AND IOWA. WON'T DIG INTO THE SPECIFIC
PARAMETERS THIS FAR OUT, BUT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOK AMPLY
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. RIGHT
NOW THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS LOCATION WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS IOWA AT THIS
POINT, HOWEVER IMPACTS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE CERTAINLY A STRONG
POSSIBLY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MO. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST
IN THE COMING DAYS AS THESE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM
EASTERN KANSAS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE EVENING, THOUGH SOME
CUMULUS CLOUD BASES MAY HOLD RIGHT AROUND 3,000 FEET. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO CLEAR EASTWARD BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE KC METRO
TERMINALS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...WFO EAX
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