783
FXUS63 KEAX 250527
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1227 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
..UPDATED 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SPORADIC SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY; POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO MINIMAL
FLOODING MAINLY FOR WESTERN MO
- LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW; DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND
- A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED
UPPER AND MID LEVEL PATTERN AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY, MORNING ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY DWINDLED ACROSS THE AREA,
BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI. WITH WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION, EXPECT
THIS TO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 6PM. INITIALLY,
SOME STRONGER STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH ISOLATED STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, HOW LONG THE SEVERE
THREAT LINGERS IS STILL IN QUESTION WITH CAPE DWINDLING TO
AROUND 500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS TONIGHT. WHAT IS
MORE CERTAIN IS THAT STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUED OVER AN INCH IN NORTHERN MO.
WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS LOOK UNLIKELY, AN ISOLATED
RISK IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREA THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ON FRIDAY, STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING AS THE FINAL WAVE PUSHES EAST, FINALLY
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHORTWAVE PARADE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS
PAST WEEK. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AIDING IN MILD LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
60S.
RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO THE
RETURN OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND EVEN LOW 80S. ATTENTION WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY. AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALREADY OUTLINED A 30% CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO NEBRASKA AND IOWA. WON'T DIG INTO THE SPECIFIC
PARAMETERS THIS FAR OUT, BUT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOK AMPLY
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. RIGHT
NOW THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS LOCATION WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS IOWA AT THIS
POINT, HOWEVER IMPACTS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE CERTAINLY A STRONG
POSSIBLY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MO. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST
IN THE COMING DAYS AS THESE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS MCI AND
MKC AS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS START. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH
EASTWARD OF THESE SITES BY 07Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS
PUSHING ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE SHOWERS. BASED ON TRENDS AS THIS MOVED
THROUGH NEBRASKA, THINKING THIS WILL REACH STJ AND KC METRO
TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-10Z, AND COULD LAST FOR FEW A HOURS. AFTER,
AREA OF LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS MOVES IN, AND MAY BE AROUND
FOR FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. STJ WILL MOST LIKELY BE UNDER IFR
CONDITIONS. GIVEN INCREASING MODEL PROBABILITIES AND THE
CURRENT TRACK OF IFR CEILINGS MOVING IN FROM NEBRASKA, HAVE
ADDED A FEW HOURS OF IFR CEILINGS TO THE KC METRO TERMINALS AS
WELL. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...WFO EAX
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