803
FXUS63 KEAX 251114
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY FRIDAY, GIVE WAY TO DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MO AS OF 07Z IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY, THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
AS SUCH, CHANCES FOR NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MAINLY TIED TO
THAT FRONT SO HAVE THOSE CHANCES SLIDING SOUTH WITH TIME THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LOW DUE TO
WEAK CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
BUT AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WEAK CAPE AND
SHEAR.
FOR SATURDAY, COOLER AND ESPECIALLY DRIER AIR, ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL GIVE US AT LEAST ONE DRY DAY TO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST, ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN THE 300K AND 305K SURFACES, COMBINED WITH MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT, WILL LEAD TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
STARTING OVERNIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SUNDAY
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE 50-
70% RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A BETTER SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT STARTED SATURDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY, WILL ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. DEWPOINTS WILL WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE RANGE. THIS UNSEASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 80S, AND ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LEAD TO CAPE VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 2300 TO 2700 J/KG RANGE.
IN THE UPPER- LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WAVE
TAKES ON A MORE POSITIVE TILT AS IT'S DOING THIS, WHICH IS NOT
IDEAL. THE JET STRUCTURE, WHILE HAVING SOME DIFFLUENCE DUE TO
WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND MORE SO A RESULT OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGING, IS ALSO NOT IN FAVORABLE POSITION, AT LEAST
INITIALLY. IT'S NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE AREA MOVES INTO
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS STRONGER MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DOES LEAD TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THOUGH
AND SHEAR VECTORS, WHILE NOT ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT, WOULD
FAVOR STORM MOTIONS OFF OF THE FRONT LEADING TO MORE DISCRETE
CELLS. OVERALL, GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR, FAVORABLE CAPE, AND
MODEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. WITH DISCRETE CELLS
POSSIBLE, LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES LOOK POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
THERE IS A MIX OF VFR, MVFR, AND IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH
THE POORER CONDITIONS GENERALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN KS AND
NORTHWESTERN MO. THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD A FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
CURRENTLY. THAT SAID, THERE'S A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
WHEN. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD BE AT THE KC TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. BUT HIGHER
CLOUDS ARE MASKING THE LOWER CLOUDS SO IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE
WHERE THEY ARE AND TIME THEM INTO THE TERMINALS. SO WILL GO GO
OUT THE GATE WITH LOW MVFR CEILINGS BASED ON AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
WITH A TREND TO IFR LATER THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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