411
FXUS63 KEAX 251743
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1243 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY FRIDAY, GIVE WAY TO DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MO AS OF 07Z IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY, THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
AS SUCH, CHANCES FOR NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MAINLY TIED TO
THAT FRONT SO HAVE THOSE CHANCES SLIDING SOUTH WITH TIME THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LOW DUE TO
WEAK CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
BUT AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WEAK CAPE AND
SHEAR.
FOR SATURDAY, COOLER AND ESPECIALLY DRIER AIR, ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL GIVE US AT LEAST ONE DRY DAY TO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST, ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN THE 300K AND 305K SURFACES, COMBINED WITH MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT, WILL LEAD TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
STARTING OVERNIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SUNDAY
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE 50-
70% RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A BETTER SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT STARTED SATURDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY, WILL ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. DEWPOINTS WILL WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE RANGE. THIS UNSEASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 80S, AND ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LEAD TO CAPE VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 2300 TO 2700 J/KG RANGE.
IN THE UPPER- LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WAVE
TAKES ON A MORE POSITIVE TILT AS IT'S DOING THIS, WHICH IS NOT
IDEAL. THE JET STRUCTURE, WHILE HAVING SOME DIFFLUENCE DUE TO
WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND MORE SO A RESULT OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGING, IS ALSO NOT IN FAVORABLE POSITION, AT LEAST
INITIALLY. IT'S NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE AREA MOVES INTO
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS STRONGER MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DOES LEAD TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THOUGH
AND SHEAR VECTORS, WHILE NOT ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT, WOULD
FAVOR STORM MOTIONS OFF OF THE FRONT LEADING TO MORE DISCRETE
CELLS. OVERALL, GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR, FAVORABLE CAPE, AND
MODEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. WITH DISCRETE CELLS
POSSIBLE, LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES LOOK POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
MVFR CIGS REMAIN AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-13 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THEY MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN BELOW
2000 FEET AND ABOVE 2000 FEET. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME EAST
NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, DECREASING TO BELOW 10
KNOTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...BMW
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