414
FXUS63 KEAX 260458
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TO LIKELY LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- WARM (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S) AND WINDY (SOUTHERLY AT 20
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) ON MONDAY.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE IN PLAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OUT AHEAD OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA (YIELDING YET ANOTHER DAY OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND NW
TEXAS), WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETELY MADE IT
THROUGH THE CWA, AND IS DRAPED FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE
OZARKS, WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID
40S (NORTHERN MO) TO THE LOWER 50S.
BY TOMORROW, THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA,
WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THE COLD FRONT
SAGS FURTHER SOUTH AND BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/RED RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING FOR THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) ACROSS THE
REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY (AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S).
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MONDAY, IN WHICH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL YIELD STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS OUR CWA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR (SURFACE SUSTAINED WINDS
UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH), WITH THETA E ADVECTION SENDING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S
BY MID TO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. UNLIKE PREVIOUS POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER SETUPS, CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS MUCH MORE
MANAGEABLE, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE,
50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT WELL ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150 TO 200 M2/S2 AND
RIGHT TURNING HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOW LEVELS, TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE IN PLAY (ESPECIALLY IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET SOME SLIGHTLY
BACKED SURFACE WINDS). SPC'S DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THIS
MORNING HAS ALMOST ALL OF OUR CWA WITHIN THE 30% RISK AREA.
LOOK FOR A POTENTIAL DAY 3 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WHEN SPC RELEASES THEIR NEW OUTLOOK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT (AND ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT) IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL COME BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES (30 TO 50%) MAY LINGER INTO MID WEEK FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. CIGS WILL HOVER AROUND 2000FT +/- A COUPLE HUNDRED
THROUGH MIDDAY. CIGS LIFT AND SKY COVERAGE OPENS SLIGHTLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS CONTINUING SHIFTING TOWARD THE NE BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY
BY SUNRISE. WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE SE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...PESEL
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