160
FXUS63 KEAX 142346
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
646 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ABOVE NORMAL/SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THRU END OF
WORK WEEK, THEN FEW DEGREES COOLER INTO/THRU WEEKEND
- TODAY: WARMEST DAY FOR MOST OF AREA
- THURSDAY: POSSIBLY WARMEST DAY FOR EASTERN AREAS
* SHOWER/STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITY MAY NOT COME UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
A WARM BUT QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA THUS FAR. VISIBLE AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REINFORCE THIS WITH DEPICTIONS OF BUDDING FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION AND SHORTWAVE OR LARGER WAVE ACTIVITY
DISPLACED WELL BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE AREA. FOR REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, WARMEST WEST, AS 850MB THERMAL RIDGE ENCROACHES.
AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION STREAMS NORTHWARD, IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS
EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS TOO HINT AT THIS WITH LITTLE TO NO SB/ML
CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SOME MOISTENING OF THE 900MB-
800MB LAYER. THIS WOULD YIELD MUCAPE VALUES >2000-3000 J/KG AND
BORDERLINE SUPPORTIVE BULK SHEAR PROFILES. LACKING OVERALL IS
LIFT/OOMPH TO KICK START ANYTHING, BUT POTENTIAL WEAK TO NO CAP AND
ENCROACHING ~850MB DRY LINE/LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS IN/AROUND NW MISSOURI AROUND 03Z. WINDOW FOR STORMS
WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WOULD BE SHORT AS THE DRY LAYER CONTINUES
TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO IOWA TONIGHT. RISK WOULD BE FOR HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS, BUT AGAIN RISK TENDS TO BE LOW (POPS <20%) THOUGH NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH A COUPLE HRRR RUN DEPICTIONS OF STORMS IN
THE NW MISSOURI AREA WEST OF I-35. REITERATING SHORT WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY, AROUND 02Z-05Z.
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS
THE AREA SETTLES INTO THE DRY SLOT OF THE PARENT MID-UPPER AND
SURFACE LOWS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MINNESOTA/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PEAK 850MB TEMPERATURES PASS
OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME FRAME, LARGELY SPARING THE AREA FROM
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES TOUCHING 90 DEG F. BEST CHANCES FOR UPPER
80S/LOW 90S LIKELY INTO ILLINOIS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL YIELD BREEZY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE SW/WSW WIND GUSTS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S MPH MAY BE EXPERIENCED. WIND GUSTS EASE AS
YOU WORK SOUTHWARD, WITH MOST AROUND/SOUTH OF I-70 AROUND THE
LOW TO MID 20S MPH.
BY FRIDAY, LARGELY STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL PUSH BACK NORTHWARD. CONCURRENTLY, COLD FRONT
MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA WILL APPROACH. QUESTION WILL BE, HOW FAR
NORTHWARD WILL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE RETURN BE ABLE TO GET BEFORE
COLD FRONT TRUCKS THROUGH. OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST CYCLES WITH E/SE AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE STORM ACTIVITY. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME
VARIABILITY IN NORTHWARD RETURN OF INSTABILITY, SO IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ACTIVITY COULD BE AS FAR WESTWARD
AS I-35, BUT ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS REMAINS FURTHER EAST. PROGRESSIVE
NATURE WOULD LIMIT ANY HYDROLOGIC THREAT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WOULD SUGGEST A PRIMARY HAIL AND WIND THREAT. TIMING AFTER
18Z/DEPENDENT ON COLD FRONTAL TIMING.
WEEKEND START QUIET AND PLEASANT BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT, HIGHS GENERALLY MID 70S TO LOW 80S. BY SUNDAY, NEXT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS PRESENTS ITSELF AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LIFTS WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR NORTHWARD WARM FRONT CAN ACHIEVE, WITH MANY DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS SUGGESTING NORTHERN HALF OF CWA TO REMAIN ON THE
DRY SIDE. BY SUNDAY OVERNIGHT, SUGGESTIONS TOO CONTINUE FOR MCS TO
POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE AREA, BUT GENESIS AREA DOES VARY FROM
NORTHERN TX TO KS, WHICH CARRIES RAMIFICATIONS FOR
STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL ASIDE FROM ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION.
ENSEMBLES REMAIN ROBUST ENOUGH THAT NBM POPS IN THE 50%-75%
RANGE (GREATEST SOUTH) SUNDAY NIGHT REMAIN FAIR.
BROAD PATTERN AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING TRAVERSING THE
CENTRAL CONUS/PLAINS AND SURFACE LOW HANGING OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS A LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS IN
AND BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE SW US. WIDELY VARIED SURFACE
DEPICTIONS BY TUE/WED AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. POTENTIALLY
OUR NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, BUT LOTS OF
DETAILS TO HASH OUT AND CONFIDENCE TO GAIN BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD RELAX BY
AROUND 1Z THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY BY
AROUND 11Z TOMORROW AND THEN BECOMING WESTERLY BY AROUND 15Z
TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM NEAR STJ BETWEEN 1Z
AND 3Z TONIGHT, SO HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP FOR -TSRA
THERE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...BMW
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