332
FXUS63 KEAX 150902
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
402 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING FRIDAY INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
A SURFACE LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NE WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO A MORE GRADUAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S (ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY). DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL REDUCE RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON TO THE MID 20S TO MID
30S. AREAS NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF MO WILL SEE THE LOWER END
OF THAT RANGE. WITH A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW, WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GUST TO AROUND 20-25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE WARM, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ENOUGH FOR SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF MO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER MN BY FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME, THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE BUT WILL BE DRAPED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MO TO SOUTHWESTERN MO. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
LIFTING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT SAGS WILL BE
ONE OF THE DETERMINING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. THE RAP,
NAM, AND GFS ARE ALL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA WILL SEE RAIN. THE RAP KEEPS RAIN
WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST MO. THE NAM DEVELOPS RAIN NEAR
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF OUR CWA (COUNTIES NEAR PETTIS, HENRY,
AND BATES). THE GFS KEEPS THE RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE
RAP, BUT NOT INTO OUR CWA LIKE THE NAM. THE LREF GIVES THE
SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES OF OUR CWA AROUND A 40% CHANCE FOR
PRECIP. GIVEN THE 40-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR, A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE
TO ORGANIZE EVEN WITH JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE IF THE CAP
IS ERODED. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE, SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREATS. AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES,
EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY THE SAME WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA.
SATURDAY REMAINS MOSTLY QUIET FOR OUR AREA AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A H500 SHORTWAVE PASSING ON THE
UNDERSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES FOR CENTRAL MO LATE
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
UNSETTLED AS TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TRANSITIONS TO A CLOSED
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW BEGINS TO EJECT MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW THAT WILL PROVIDE DAILY RAIN CHANCES FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. ADDITIONALLY,
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IS STILL VERY HIGH THIS FAR OUT.
PLEASE STAY CURRENT ON FUTURE WEATHER UPDATES.
THE PATTERN SEEMS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS POTENTIALLY
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
AROUND 22 KTS WITH DAYTIME MIXING. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 25 KFT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER
TONIGHT TO AROUND 10-15 KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...CURTIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page