622
FXUS63 KEAX 152334
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* LARGELY SEASONAL TO NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST, FROM THE 70S TO MID 80S.
* BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE
NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN STRONG/SEVERE, BEST CHANCES
CURRENTLY APPEAR AS MONDAY/TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
COMFORT LEVEL TODAY, THUS FAR, HAS DEPENDED ON WHICH SIDE OF THE DRY
LINE/COOL FRONT YOU RESIDED. BY EARLY-MID MORNING, AREAS NEAR/ALONG
THE KS/MO BORDER FELT THE RELIEF, WHILE AREAS AROUND KIRKSVILLE AND
MOBERLY ARE JUST (AS OF 18Z) SEEING HUMIDITY FALL AND AIR
TEMPERATURE EASE A COUPLE DEGREES. CONCURRENT WITH THE
BOUNDARY/FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN DUST FROM AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION IN KS/OK.
FORTUNATELY WINDS, WHILE BREEZY, WERE NOT OF SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
STRENGTH TO REALLY PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES. A FEW SITES DID
FALL TOWARD 4 TO 6 MILES, BUT GENERALLY BRIEFLY AND HAS ONLY BEEN
SPORADIC AT SITES EAST OF THE KC METRO. DEGRADED AIR QUALITY, MOST
SIGNIFICANT FOR SENSITIVE POPULATIONS, WILL/HAS BEEN THE MAIN
CONSEQUENCE. OTHERWISE, VERY PLEASANT MID-MAY CONDITIONS AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
FOR FRIDAY, ANY STORM OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON A RACE BETWEEN NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SURFACE HIGH AND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WRAPPING AROUND PARENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BULK OF
ACTIVITY JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA AND PRIMARILY INTO
JURISDICTIONS OF SGF/LSX AND EASTWARD. SHOULD WARM FRONT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SUCCEED IN GETTING INTO THE S/SE FORECAST AREA, THERE
WOULD BE A RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, BUT QUITE LIMITED IN TIME
FRAME WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TREND
NORTHWARD, HAVE KEPT POPS JUST OUT OF THE CWA FOR THE MOST PART WITH
PREVAILING EXPECTATION FOR BULK ACTIVITY TO BE CLOSER TO I-44 AND
EASTWARD. TOWARDS N/NW MISSOURI, ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS UP INTO THE 30S MPH POSSIBLE. WEEKEND THEN STARTS OUT
QUITE PLEASANT WITH INCREASING SURFACE HIGH INFLUENCE, PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES (70S/LOW 80S), AND LOW HUMIDITY.
BY SUNDAY, LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFTS TOWARDS A MUCH MORE ACTIVE
STANCE, AT LEAST AS FAR AS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS IS CONCERNED.
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW AND BEGINS TO KICK OUT
AND TAKING ON A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE TILT. THERE REMAINS SOME VARIANCE
IN THIS PROGRESSION, BUT LARGELY DEPICTS A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY
RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW, AND EFFECTIVELY ENACTING A FUJIWARA EFFECT
WITHIN THE WESTERN TROUGH. THIS SLOWS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUCH
THAT STRONG/SEVERE STORM OPPORTUNITIES MAY BE REALIZED AROUND OR
WITHIN THE AREA FROM SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE NITTY GRITTY DETAILS CONTINUE TO COME INTO FOCUS, CONFIDENCE
IN STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL GROWS WITH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
DEPICTIONS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. PURELY GOING BY CONCEPTUAL
MODEL, THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT IN ROUNDS OF STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL/ACTIVITY WITHIN THE LARGER AREA (KS/MO/OK/AR) FROM SUNDAY
THRU TUESDAY WITH THE NEGATIVE WAVE TILT, STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE
RETURN, SUPPORTIVE WIND PROFILES, LEE CYCLOGENESIS, ETC. THIS TOO IS
STRONGLY BOLSTERED BY THE VARIOUS AI, MACHINE LEARNING, AND ANALOGUE
TOOLS/GUIDANCE STRONGLY HIGHLIGHTING DAYS 4-6 (SUN-TUE). SPC
HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH DAYS 4/5/6 15%. DO TEND TO AGREE
WITH GUIDANCE THAT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING APPEARS TO BE THE CURRENT
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE AREA AS A
SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS N KANSAS/SE NEBRASKA,
PLACING AREA WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND IN VICINITY OF BOTH WARM FRONT
AND DRY LINE. ALL MODES WOULD POTENTIALLY BE IN PLAY. SUNDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS NOT NECESSARILY OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER AS
GENESIS AREA OVER KS/OK EXPECTED TO GROW INTO A PROGRESSIVE MCS, BUT
LIKELY WEAKENING GIVEN MORE LIKELY EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. OF
NOTE TOO WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYDROLOGIC THREAT GIVEN
POSSIBLE/LIKELY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER
THIS TIME FRAME (SUN-TUE) OR LONGER. EURO/GFS ENSEMBLES LARGELY
DEPICT 2" TO 4" OVER THIS TIME FRAME, BUT INEVITABLY WITH CONVECTION
MORE LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS COULD BE EXPECTED. WHILE WPC ERO DOES
HAVE A DAY 4 SLIGHT (SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT) WITH FIRST WAVE OF
CONVECTION/MCS, DO TEND TO THINK THE THREAT TENDS TO BE GREATER
COME MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE SUBSEQUENT OPPORTUNITIES, OF WHICH
WPC TOO DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK WITHIN THE AREA FOR DAY
5/MONDAY. A LOT TO WATCH AND DIGEST OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH
REGARDS TO SEVERE AND HYDRO THREATS.
BY TUESDAY ONWARD, WESTERN TROUGH KICKS OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND
SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE TENDS TO DIVERGE IN THIS HANDLING. MAY BE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE WANES AT THIS
POINT. HYDROLOGIC THREAT TOO MAY PERSIST BEFORE CONDITIONS SUGGESTED
TO DRY OUT MID-LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
SHOULD RELAX BY AROUND 2Z/3Z TONIGHT, WITH 10 KNOT SSW WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME WESTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS ARRIVING AT THE TERMINALS BY AROUND 21Z FRIDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...BMW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page