693
FXUS63 KEAX 161723
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1223 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
..18Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY; ROBUST ACTIVITY FAR
EASTERN MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
- MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
- ACTIVE PATTERN STARTS SUNDAY, CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- SEVERE STORMS FAVORABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY; HEAVY RAIN COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
MULTIPLE FEATURES AT THE SURFACE AND IN MID/UPPER-LEVELS PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SETTING UP DIFFERING AREAS ACTIVE WEATHER
AND AREAS OF MORE MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MOST PROMINENT
FEATURE IS A CLOSED-LOW THROUGH 300MB CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS OF 0700 UTC THIS
MORNING. THIS IS CREATING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A SECONDARY THOUGH
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW,
WITH STRONG VORT MAXIMA AND 120KT H5 JET STREAK WORKING THROUGH
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THEN ANOTHER H5 JETSTREAK AROUND
100KT IN MAGNITUDE HEADING TOWARD THE OZARKS REGION. THE PRIMARY
SURFACE CYCLONE HAS BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER KANSAS
THOUGH IS PROMOTING STRONGER DCVA RESULTING IN LOCALIZED SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND OBJECTIVE SURFACE MAP
ANALYSIS INDICATING THIS IS FORMING A COMPACT SURFACE CYCLONE. THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN SURFACE CYCLONE HAS CLEARED
THROUGH THE OZARKS REGION THIS MORNING AND IS HEADED TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, SURFACE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHWESTERLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH THE
MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA WHERE ASCENT HAS BEEN ONGOING. THEREFORE, THIS
HAS BEEN MAINTAINING WAA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DESPITE THE
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE HAVE REALLY ONLY SEEN A NOTABLE DROP IN
DEWPOINTS, BUT NOT AIR TEMPS. AS THIS H5 JET STREAK WORKS TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES. 00Z AND 06Z CAM
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FIELDS HAVE SHOWN WEAK DEVELOPMENT FROM
NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BETWEEN 11Z-15Z THIS
MORNING. WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS RADARS HAVE SHOWN SOME
RETURNS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT NO SURFACE STATIONS REPORTED
ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND. WILL PLACE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AS THIS FORCING MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH, BUT WITH
FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY, WILL NOT BE OVERLY ROBUST.
THEREFORE, SHOULD SEE BREAKS IN ANY CLOUD COVER THAT HELPS
TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S, SOME AREAS PERHAPS ONLY
UPPER 70S. IF THE ASCENT IN THE DCVA REGION CONTINUES, SECONDARY
SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENING WILL RESULT IN A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING IN AREAS WITH CLEARING TODAY, WITH
WINDS AROUND 30 KTS TOWARD THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THEREFORE,
EXPECTING WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FAR NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI MAY REACH ABOVE 40 MPH FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR NOW, NOT
SEEING A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY IN NORTHWEST
MISSOURI, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF ELEVATED
SHOWERS DEVELOP, MAY SEE THOSE TRANSPORT GREATER MOMENTUM TOWARD THE
SURFACE. EVENTUALLY THE H5 STREAK MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND PULLS THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE THROUGH
BY LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE THE CLOSED-CYCLONE IN THE UPPER-MIDWEST
PROVIDES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PUSHES ANOTHER COOL FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE WESTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SETUP A ROBUST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT FOR
EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA, AND 06Z CAMS KEEP ALL ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF HWY. 63.
SATURDAY, A FEW PV ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SETUP MULTIPLE
SHORT-WAVE AXES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL INCREASE THE FLOW
ENOUGH TO MOVE THE THE CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION, DEVELOPING A CORRIDOR OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES FROM
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EVENTUALLY THIS
BECOMES A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA,
PROVIDING WAA WITH PASSAGE OF A THERMAL RIDGE, MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE LAST AFTERNOON HOURS
OF SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE EARLY PORTIONS DRY. THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WITH UPPER
70S TOWARD THE KIRKSVILLE AREA. LATER SATURDAY, H5 TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT THAT MAY EJECT A
LOCALIZED VORT MAXIMA TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONSE TURNS SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS
RESULTING IN ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT, AND COULD BRING SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE VERY LATE EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. PRIMARY H5 RIDGE AXIS SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT OR VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY, BROAD H5
TROUGHING IS STILL PROGGED OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
THE FRONT RANGE. DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT TWO VORT MAXIMA
AND CLOSED-LOWS THAT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP, NEARLY DEPICTING A FUJIWARA
EFFECT. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THIS WILL PAN OUT EXACTLY AS
MODELED, BUT IS AT LEAST INDICATIVE THAT THE PROPAGATION OF THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS STALLS, PROVIDING THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG DCVA COMMENCES IN THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. THIS
ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE PROVIDING STRONGER THETA-
E ADVECTION. THIS STARTS TO PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
TO CENTRAL MISSOURI. EXPECTING PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS
MOST OF THE THETA-E TRANSPORT AXIS TO GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOST OF
THE DAY SUNDAY, HELPED BY A FEW MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA EJECTING FROM
FROM THE MAIN TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA. WHILE THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
INTRODUCE INSTABILITY, WITH MUCAPE VALUES PUSHING ABOVE 2500 J/KG,
STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AS WARM-NOSE PUSHES THROUGH. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY CAN DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME, BUT BETTER SHEAR
AND FORCING REMAINS WEST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS FOR MOST OF SUNDAY,
THUS LARGELY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THAT COULD
BECOME SEVERE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ON SUNDAY,
WITH MOST ENSEMBLE SUITES DEPICTING OVER 90 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MONDAY, EXPECTING THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO SLIDE FURTHER EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH DCVA MOVING EASTWARD TRACKING THE SURFACE
CYCLONE FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL WILL PROVIDE BETTER LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, AND PUSHES THE WARM FRONT TOWARD
THE IOWA STATE LINE. HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS SETTLES IN, WITH DEWPOINTS
PROGGED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY. 36.
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD HELP TO BACK SURFACE WINDS,
INCREASE LOW-LEVEL FLOW, WHILE STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD INCREASING THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS A
STRONG WARM-SECTOR. THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FAVORABLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE WARM FRONT
WHERE SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CYCLONE COULD OCCUR.
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE IN HOW THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE
H5 TROUGH EVOLVES MONDAY, AND EVENTUALLY ON WHEN IT BECOMES A
DEFINITIVE CLOSED-LOW. THEREFORE, THIS GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE THE
WARM FRONT SURGES AND HOW EXPANSIVE THE WARM-SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH STRONG FORCING AND INSTABILITY, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH STORMS ON MONDAY. THE
MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR VALUES AND POTENTIAL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE COULD
SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT, BUT THERE IS NOT A STRONG CONSENSUS ON HOW
EXACTLY THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD DEVELOPS, AND SEVERAL OTHER
MESOSCALE FACTORS CANNOT YET BE DETERMINED. WITH THE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES TO DEVELOP THAT COULD DRASTICALLY ALTER THE WIND FIELD.
ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE STORMS THREAT, A STALLING WARM FRONT WITHIN AN
AREA OF BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT COULD LEAD TO TRAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS OR PERHAPS AN MCS, AND IN ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS
PUSHING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, LIKELY LEADS TO FLOODING ISSUES. GEFS AND
OTHER ENSEMBLE SUITES DO CURRENTLY DEPICT OVER 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL ON MONDAY, AND THAT
WOULD BE ON TOP OF WHATEVER OCCURS FROM SUNDAY ACTIVITY. DEPENDING
ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THE H5 TROUGH BECOMES, TUESDAY COULD BE ANOTHER
DAY OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IF THE WARM FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA, LEAVING A STRONG WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH
THROUGH AND AGAINST A STRONG THETA-E AIRMASS. CONTINUED STRONG MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TUESDAY IS HOW LONG
FOR OUR AREA DOES THE THREAT PERSIST. IF THE COLD FRONT SURGES EARLY
BEFORE STRONGER DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR, THE THREAT MAY BE SHORT-
LIVED. HOWEVER, IF THE STALLING OF THE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT
CONTINUES, COULD SEE ACTIVITY CONTINUE LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW
MONDAY EVOLVES, AND WHAT KIND OF RECOVERY CAN OCCUR. IT IS THE TYPE
OF SETUP WHERE COULD SEE A LINGERING MCS, OR ACTIVITY THAT CONGEALS
INTO A MCV THAT GREATLY MODIFIES THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IT WILL
BE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE WE CAN REALLY START TO INSPECT MESOSCALE
OUTCOMES FOR TUESDAY ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY, RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS, AND SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH FLOW TO PUSH ANY CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM
EASTWARD. LINGERING RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, WITH
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE LIGHT ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
AFTER WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING THROUGH
THE RIDGE, BUT OVERALL PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER/STRONGEST AS YOU WORK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE IOWA AND NEBRASKA BORDER AREAS. AS A
RESULT, KSTJ MAY SEE PERIODIC WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
MID IF NOT UPPER 30S MPH. THE 3 METRO SITES TOO WILL BE GUSTY,
BUT MORE TOWARD THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND OR GREATER THAN 20 MPH AT KSTJ AND MORE TOWARD 15 TO 20
MPH FOR THE METRO SITES. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME, ANY CLOUD COVER
WELL WITHIN VFR RANGES. WINDS EASE SOME OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAIN UP
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 20MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE FURTHER EASING TOMORROW/SATURDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...CURTIS
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