548
FXUS63 KEAX 172009
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ACTIVE PATTERN RAMPS UP TOMORROW INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
- SUNDAY: STORMS MOST LIKELY EVENING/OVERNIGHT, A FEW SEVERE POSSIBLE
- MONDAY: BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE, ALL TYPES POSSIBLE
- TUESDAY: STORM THREAT SHIFTS TOWARD EASTERN MISSOURI
* POTENTIAL FOR OVERLAND AND RIVER FLOODING WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
GENERALLY SPEAKING, A FANTASTIC DAY TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. ABOUT THE
ONLY THING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT WOULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. BUT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING SURFACE HIGHER
PRESSURE INFLUENCE HAS ALLOWED MANY AREAS TO SEE W/NW WINDS TRAIL
OFF A BIT TO AROUND 10 MPH AND LESS FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH.
WHILE GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ACROSS THE AREA WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY A BIT AS AN 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE DISSECTS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT FROM THE UPPER 60S
NE TO THE UPPER 70S SW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING BIG PICTURE, GENERALLY A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS
SETTING UP ACROSS CONUS AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW SPINS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE PNW AND INTO THE DESERT
SW. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PUSHING RIDGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND
BEGINNINGS OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
SOUTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. WITH VERY LIMITED TIME/ABILITY TO PUSH
WARM FRONT/MOISTURE NORTHWARD, EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS EVENING TO
REMAIN SOUTH, BUT SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE
ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM DECAYING ACTIVITY MOVING
OUT OF SOUTHERN KS.
INTO SUNDAY, LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS THE LEADING
WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE/TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT SW
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS/DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW AND BEGIN TO PUSH IT OFF THE
FRONT RANGE AREA AND TOWARD CO/NE/KS BORDERS. THIS TOO WILL INCREASE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LIFTING A WARM
FRONT INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE NORTHWARD LOCATION OF THE
WARM FRONT MAY BE IN QUESTION A BIT, AS LOCATION, STRENGTH, AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY HAMPER WARM FRONTAL MOVEMENT TO
SOME DEGREE. CAN SEE THIS BEEN GRAPPLED WITH WITHIN HI-RES EXTENDED
RUNS, INCLUDING MORE RECENT 18Z HRRR SUGGESTING LESS WARM FRONTAL
ENCROACHMENT AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION OVER THE AREA WITH DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG/NEAR THE WARM
FRONT. REGARDLESS, WILL SEE THE WARM INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA TO SOME DEGREE SUNDAY. WITH STRONG CAPPING OVERHEAD, EXPECTATION
REMAINS FOR WARM SECTOR CONVECTION TO BE SUPPRESSED WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASING LLJ IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST, MAY INITIATE CONVECTION LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH EXPECTATION FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO BE MORE CENTERED
OVER OK/KS/MO/AR SHARED BORDER AREA AND TRACK EASTWARD WITH THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW/MEAN WINDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL ROBUST
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE DRY LINE SOMEWHERE
OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KS/OK. THIS ACTIVITY, AS IT EVENTUALLY
TRANSLATES EASTWARD, IS LIKELY OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE DAY 2 SPC WINDOW. HI-RES GUIDANCE
DEPICTIONS VARY TO SOME DEGREE ON INITIAL CONVECTION DEPICTIONS, BUT
AGREE ON UPSCALE GROWTH INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
THAT EVOLUTION, MAIN THREAT LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
A LESSER BUT POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT. SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT INTO OUR AREA
PRIMARILY HIGHLIGHTS WIND AND HAIL OVER THE AREA. THE TORNADO RISK
IN THE SPC OUTLOOK WOULD APPEAR TO BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON ANY
PRECEDING WARM SECTOR INITIATION. CURRENTLY DO NOT SEE MECHANISMS
THAT WOULD YIELD NECESSARY LIFT TO OVERCOME THE SIZABLE PROGGED CAP
AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
SHOULD LIMIT ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES WITH THIS ROUND AS WELL.
MONDAY HAS AND CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE DAY FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS FOR THE AREA. WESTERN CONUS TROUGH SEES A SECOND SHORTWAVE
PIECE RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW, HELPING THE LARGER TROUGH TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS WELL SLOW, IF NOT INITIALLY HALT, ITS PROGRESSION
FURTHER INTO THE PLAINS AS FUJIWARA EFFECT TAKES PLACE. THIS KEEPS
THE AREA SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES
TO MARCH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS BROAD CONSENSUS FOR
MID TO UPPER 60S, POSSIBLE SOME LOW 70S, DEW POINTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT IS LIKELY WE ARE CLOUDED OVER MUCH/MOST OF
MONDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE, WAA (LOW 80S TEMPS), AND MODERATE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL YIELD SB/ML CAPE VALUES >2500-3000 J/KG. AND
WHILE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOW GOOD CURVATURE, SOME CAPPING (ALBEIT
WEAK), AND A WEAKNESS IN 0-6KM BULK SHEAR, LAGGING LARGE SCALE LIFT
LOOKS TO LIMIT INITIATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. IF THERE IS
ANOTHER LIFTING MECHANISM THAT DEVELOPS OR LARGE SCALE LIFT RESULTS
FURTHER EAST, ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR COULD BE QUITE
NASTY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS QUITE LOW AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE,
THIS BEGINS TO SHIFT THE FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE WARM FRONT AND BACK
WESTWARD TO THE DRYLINE. WARM FRONTAL LOCATION DOES REMAIN A BIT
QUESTIONABLE, BUT IS CERTAINLY EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE FORECAST
AREA. JUST MAY RANGE FROM AROUND I-70 UP TO THE IOWA BORDER.
REGARDLESS OF LOCATION, INITIATION ALONG/NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY YIELD OUR BEST TORNADIC THREAT. HOWEVER, STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST RESIDENCE TIME NEAR THE FRONT MAY BE SHORT LIVED. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD ABSOLUTELY BE IN PLAY AS WELL. TO THE WEST,
DRY LINE LIKELY WITHIN THE TOP FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE IN A
SIMILARLY JUICY ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
WIND PROFILES. MOST SUGGESTIONS ARE FOR UPSCALE GROWTH TO OCCUR AS
ACTIVITY TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT MONDAY
AND SHIFT PRIMARY SEVERE RISK TO WIND AND TRANSIENT HAIL AT THAT
POINT. THOUGH ANY ISOLATED OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY TOO
WOULD CARRY A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL RISK AND A TORNADIC THREAT AS
WELL WITH SUPPORT LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH DEPICTIONS AND LCLS <500M, OF
WHICH BEST OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE OVER WESTERN FORECAST AREA. SPC DAY
3 ENHANCED OVER VIRTUALLY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, AND AM IN FULL
AGREEMENT ON AT THIS POINT. HYDROLOGIC THREAT INCREASES AT THIS
POINT TOO, EVEN IF STORMS/CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE PROGRESSIVE.
PWATS AROUND 1.7" AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AROUND 4KM WOULD YIELD
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN RAINFALL RATES
>3"+/HR. COUPLED WITH PRECEDING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MORNING, SOME
AREAS MAY BE PRIMED FOR OVERLAND AND RIVER FLOODING. CURRENT RFC FFG
SUGGESTS ~2-2.5"/1HR TO 3-3.5"/3HR, AND WOULD BE LESS DEPENDING ON
PRECEDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS IS COVERED BY AN EXPANSIVE WPC DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK AREA, WHICH LIKELY ACCOUNTS FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
OVERLAPPING ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, CONCURRENT WITH ITS SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION. CUTOFF LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SLOWS/STALLS THE
PROGRESSION, DEPICTING AN UGLY OMEGA BLOCK, LINGERING SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA AND NORTHWARD. SEVERE RISK HAS CONTINUED TO
RAMP DOWN THOUGH, PUSHING EASTWARD WITH COLD FRONTAL/DRY LINE
PASSAGE. THIS TOO IS REFLECTED IN THE SPC DAY 4 15% ALL BUT EAST
FORECAST AREA. FAR EASTERN (THINK KIRKSVILLE, MOBERLY, SEDALIA)
COULD BE AN INITIATION POINT FOR STORMS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, MORE
WRAP AROUND ORIENTED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD BE PRESENT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LESSER HYDROLOGIC RISK AT THIS POINT AS
WELL DUE TO LESSER OPPORTUNITY FOR ROBUST CONVECTION/MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT MAY PROLONG OR SUBTLY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING
ISSUES.
MID-WEEK, DEGRADATION OF UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW OCCURS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. MAIN
CONSEQUENCE BEING LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHTER RAIN
OPPORTUNITIES BEFORE FURTHER DRYING LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SITES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. A COUPLE OF ITEMS OF NOTE THOUGH. A FEW W/NW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE/FEW
HOURS OF THE PERIOD, EASING AND SHIFTING CLOCKWISE OUT OF THE
NORTH AND THEN EAST. OVERNIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS MAY CLIP THE METRO
SITES KIXD/KMKC/KCI, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED SO OPTED FOR
PROB30. BEST CHANCES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD,
WINDS SHIFT FURTHER, TOWARD THE SE AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS
AGAIN POSSIBLE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS
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