775
FXUS63 KEAX 190443
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1143 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OPPORTUNITIES BEGIN THIS EVENING
- SUNDAY: STORMS OVERSPREAD AREA THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.
PRIMARY RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
- MONDAY: MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- TUESDAY: STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES SHIFT TOWARD
E/SE MISSOURI.
* POTENTIAL FOR OVERLAND AND RIVER FLOODING WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING THRU TUESDAY.
- FLOODING RISK PEAKS MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
AFTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-70, CLOUDS CLEARED OUT IN RESPONSE TO BROAD/WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER PRETTY COMFORTABLE DAY, THUS
FAR, ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAINING
BACK OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI. HIGHS ON TRACK TO FOR
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAINS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BY THIS EVENING AS EJECTING WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO INDUCE
INCREASED LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND
RESULTING SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS, BUT
APPEARS POISED TO STRUGGLE TO REACH MUCH MORE THAN I-70 AROUND KC
METRO AND ANGLING BACK TO THE SE. HI-RES/CAM GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
DOWN/DOWNPLAYED INITIAL CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND TENDS TO MAKE SENSE WITH MORE DIFFUSE NATURE
OF WARM FRONT, LESSER MUCAPE AVAILABLE, AND LESSER SUPPORTIVE LIFT
AND WIND PROFILES AS YOU WORK INTO/ACROSS MISSOURI. SO, THAT PUSHES
PRIMARY CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE TOWARD THE LATTER
EVENING HOURS. ENVIRONMENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS REMAINS HIGHLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF ALL
HAZARDS, BUT WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS TO EVOLVE PRIOR TO REACHING
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA, MUCH MORE LIMITED IN THE RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION LATE IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAP REMAINING IN PLACE
(>100 J/KG) AND MUCH WEAKER LIFT (SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE) TO
INITIATE ANY NEW CONVECTION. THIS STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT ANY
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO THE STORMS MOVING
OUT OF KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HI-RES/CAM
GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TO SUGGEST ANY INITIAL SUPERCELLS GROW UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO LARGELY INTERFERE WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THAT SAID, OLDER HRRR RUNS HAD SHOWN POTENTIAL FOR PSEUDO-
ISOLATED AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA, SO IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. IT IS LIKELY THAT BY THE TIME THIS ACTIVITY ARRIVES,
AFTER 10PM, THAT IT WILL TAKE ON A MORE ELEVATED NATURE AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM ITS MORE SUPPORTIVE AIRMASS/ENVIRONMENT OVER KANSAS AND
INTO A MORE CAPPED ONE IN MISSOURI. THIS LIMITS SURFACE BASED
POTENTIAL AND TORNADIC THREAT, WHICH MAY BE IMPORTANT TO NOTE WITH
HODOGRAPHS SHOWING QUITE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL CURVATURE OVER LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING LLJ ACTIVITY TOO LENDS
TOWARDS MORE WIDESPREAD AND CONGEALING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
UNCERTAINTY IN ABILITY TO ORGANIZE. ONGOING WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION
MAINTAINS A PRETTY UNSTABLE PROFILE, WITH ONGOING DEPICTIONS >2000
J/KG MUCAPE POSSIBLE. SHOULD CONVECTION LEND TOWARD CONGEALING,
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMES THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH TRANSIENT HAIL
OPPORTUNITIES. SHOULD PSEUDO ISOLATED CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO PREVAIL
ELEVATED ORGANIZATION COULD OCCUR AND TOO INTRODUCE LARGE HAIL,
HOWEVER SUPPORTIVE SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO COME BY
AS SOURCE REGION MOVES MUCH ABOVE THE NEAR-SURFACE. A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY/WAIT AND SEE GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THIS TIME FRAME.
HYDROLOGIC THREAT LIKELY LIMITED WITH THIS ROUND GIVEN THE FIRST
ROUND FOR MANY, BUT MAY PRIME THE PUMP FOR MONDAY ACTIVITY TO YIELD
OVERLAND AND RIVER FLOODING.
PICK YOUR GUIDANCE (DETERMINISTIC, CAMS, ENSEMBLES,
AI/ML/RN/ANALOGUES, ETC), ALL OF IT REMAINS POINTED TOWARDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TIME
FRAME FOR THE AREA. SYNOPTICALLY, WESTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND SLIDE NE CONCURRENT TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE FLOW TO ITS WEST. THIS
EFFECTIVELY STALLS THE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND ANY FURTHER
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW, BUT KEEPS THE AREA WITHIN BROAD
WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION. SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
POISED TO REACH TOWARD THE MISSOURI/NEBRASKA SHARED BORDER AREA
AND ANGLE BACK ESE/SE ACROSS THE STATE. THIS PUTS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM SECTOR, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE PRECEDING ENVIRONMENT
EVOLVES AND DESTABILIZES... CONVECTIVE REMNANTS MONDAY MORNING,
DEPICTIONS OF ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING, CONVECTIVE REMNANTS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ETC WILL ALL PLAY SOME ROLE AS TO HOW THE WARM
SECTOR EVOLVES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. PREVAILING SENTIMENT
GENERALLY REMAINS SUCH THAT AS LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
BEGINS TO CENTER MORE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THAT ROBUST
SB/MLCAPE >2500 J/KG DEVELOPS WITHIN A WEAKLY TO UNCAPPED AREA.
THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH OF A MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BREAK PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR
CAN ACHIEVE. SHOULD WE LARGELY REALIZE AN UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR,
WITH THE INCREASING LIFT, MULTIPLE WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
HINDER SEVERE THREAT AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SHOULD WE REALIZE A BREAK IN ACTION AND ALLOW THE
ENVIRONMENT TO PRIME ITSELF, EARLY- MID AFTERNOON CONVECTION
COULD YIELD ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE WITH LOOPING LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS, GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR, MODERATE TO STRONG MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, ETC. LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT, COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES DRY LINE AND MOTORS THROUGH THE AREA, PROVIDING
ANOTHER ROUND/OPPORTUNITY OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR AND VERY PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE, YIELDING A
PRIMARY WIND THREAT AND MORE LIMITED HAIL THREAT. OVERALL, SPC
DAY 2 ENHANCED OUTLOOK IS MORE THAN FAIR GIVEN THE LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENT EVOLUTION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END STORMS REMAINING. INCLUDING THE
INDIVIDUAL HAZARD BREAKDOWNS OF 10% HATCHED TOR, 30% WIND, 30%
HATCHED HAIL. BE SURE TO STAY AWARE OF EVOLVING FORECAST AND
THREATS.
HYDROLOGICAL MONDAY, THIS TOO DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION THROUGH
THE DAY AS TALKED ABOUT ABOVE. SHOULD PREVAILING SOLUTION BE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING,
OVERLAND AND RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE AND CURRENT QPF
AMOUNTS OF 3-4" THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE ON THE LOW END. PWAT
VALUES >1.75", WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS TO AROUND 4KM, AND AT
LEAST MODERATE ONGOING MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL YIELD EFFICIENT
RAINFALL AND INCREASED RAINFALL RATES.
BY TUESDAY, OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHIFTS MUCH FURTHER EAST,
OVER FAR E/SE MISSOURI IF NOT INTO ILLINOIS AS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND MID-UPPER LOW SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN PLAINS. ASIDE FROM SOME
LINGERING MORNING NON-SEVERE CONVECTION, ADDITIONAL NON-SEVERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVERHEAD. CONCERN HERE MAY BE PROLONGING OR
EXACERBATING ANY ONGOING HYDROLOGIC ISSUES. MID-LATE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
STANCE, ALLOWING FOR PERIODIC, LOW PREDICTABILITY, SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
OPPORTUNITIES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL. HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING -SHRA WITH
A PROB30 MENTION OF -TSRA. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS WELL WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY BY SUNRISE. THESE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS
THICK STRATUS BUILDS INTO THE AREA. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...CDB
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