439
FXUS63 KEAX 200543
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1243 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS, REMAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT
- FLOODING, OVERLAND AND RIVER, REMAINS POSSIBLE SHOULD SIMILAR
AREAS EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM MID TO LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
IN ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY QUICKLY INCREASING AFTER
18Z/19Z AND NEEDING TO TRANSITION TO SEVERE WEATHER OPS, THIS
DISCUSSION IS EARLIER THAN TYPICAL AND WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ON THE
TODAY/TONIGHT TIME FRAME.
UNUSUALLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY LINGERING LATE THIS MORNING WITH REGARDS
TO THE EXPECTATION AND EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION AND UNCERTAINTIES, A BROAD LOOK
AT THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT...
OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING, WARM FRONT HAD REMAINED SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD OVER THE OZARKS VERSUS ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA, AND
EVEN BY LATE THIS MORNING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT (MORE SOUTHERLY
WIND PUSH) REMAINS FAIRLY DIFFUSE AND DISPLACED SOUTHWARD OVER THE
OZARKS. HOWEVER, 16Z SURFACE DEWPOINT AND SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THAT A RELATIVE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE APPARENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY KSTJ/ST. JOSEPH
BACK SE THROUGH KCOU/COLUMBIA, ESTABLISHING A SIZABLE WARM SECTOR.
FORECAST AREA REMAINS BROADLY COVERED IN STRATUS, THOUGH A FEW
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE BEGUN TO APPEAR. PEERING UPSTREAM, DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUD BREAKS WITH
CONTINUED/ONGOING STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION, BUT WOULD CERTAINLY
CARRY RAMIFICATIONS FOR CONVECTION STRENGTH. PARENT SURFACE LOW
FINDS ITSELF ELONGATED AND STRETCHING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, RESULTING IN DRY LINES BEING
BACK OVER THOSE LOCATIONS. LEADING MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS, WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE RIDING
DOWN THE BACKSIDE AND CROSS COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. ASSOCIATED 500MB/300MB JET STREAKS ROUNDING THE
TROUGH FURTHERING THE NEGATIVE TILT AND ENCROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA.
ENVIRONMENT EVOLUTION OVER THE COUPLE HOURS IS FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE, BUT THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION, ONCE IT OCCURS, IS A
BIT LESS SO. ONGOING SURFACE/NEAR-SURFACE WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ENCROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRIME THE
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING SB/MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 2500-3000 J/KG
NEIGHBORHOOD AROUND AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KSTJ/KCOU. RAP/HRRR
HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SWEEP HODOGRAPH CURVATURE THROUGH THE
LOW LEVELS AND MODEST ELONGATION ABOVE, THOUGH RECENT ACARS
SOUNDINGS HAVE SUGGESTED MODELS ARE UNDERDOING WIND SPEEDS AS THEY
HAVE DEPICTED LARGER CURVATURE AND GREATER ELONGATION THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELLULAR
ACTIVITY AND ALL MODES OF SEVERE MAY BE GREATER THAN RAP/HRRR
SUGGESTIONS. HOWEVER, A WILD CARD REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO HOW
RAPIDLY INITIAL CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE AND CONGEALS INTO
MCS/LINEAR OR AT LEAST MORE DESTRUCTIVE INTERACTIONS. AS SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE, EXPECTATION REMAINS FOR A WEAK TO
NIL CAP TO ESTABLISH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WOULD POINT TOWARDS
RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH AND A LIMITED WINDOW FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUPPORTS THIS WITH ONLY
BRIEF LOW LEVEL UH TRACKS BEFORE CONVECTION RAPIDLY GROWS UPSCALE.
DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATIONS THIS WOULDN'T BE THE PREVAILED SOLUTION
WITH INITIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HAZARDS WOULD THUSLY
PRIMARILY CENTER AROUND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADIC THREAT WITH THE SUPPORTIVE HODOGRAPH,
LCLS, ETC, BUT WOULD BE LIMITED FOR THE REASONS ABOVE. SHOULD AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
TIME THOUGH, THEY COULD POSE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT.
AFTER INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION, A SECOND ROUND TOO REMAINS
EXPECTED AS CONVECTION ALONG THE DRY LINE BACK ACROSS KANSAS GROW
UPSCALE AND MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. TIMING TO THE KS/MO BORDER
APPEARS ROUGHLY AROUND THE 8-10PM TIME FRAME AND BECOMES MORE
ELEVATED IN NATURE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND AS IT
MOVES OUT AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. ONGOING MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND
THE 850MB LEVEL AND AT LEAST MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
YIELD MUCAPE VALUES >1500-2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. PRIMARY
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A TRANSIENT SMALL
HAIL RISK WITH THE MORE LINEAR ORIENTATION AND LAPSE RATES LOOK TO
BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE. WHILE A COLD POOL MAY ESTABLISH, DEPICTIONS
OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING OFF AHEAD OF THE INITIATING BOUNDARY WOULD
RESULT IN UNSUPPORTIVE 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS AND LIMIT ANY QLCS TYPE
TORNADIC SPIN UPS.
YET A THIRD ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT BY THIS TIME
A VERY MUCH WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ILL ABLE TO SUBSTANTIATE
MUCH OF A SEVERE RISK. LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND BETTER 0-3KM SHEAR
ORIENTATION MAY YIELD A LEADING EDGE SPIN UP OPPORTUNITY, BUT A LOT
HAS TO PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THIS TO DETERMINE HOW ROBUST CONVECTION MAY
BE WITH THIS PASSAGE.
HYDROLOGICALLY SPEAKING, THERE TOO REMAINS A FLOODING THREAT,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 ROUNDS OF CONVECTION OVER SIMILAR
AREAS. HIGH PWATS AND FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS TOO PLAY
UP THE HEAVY, AND EFFICIENT, RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS.
HEADWATER AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH SINCE THE
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT WAS NOT SUBSTANTIAL AND LESS
THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. THIS RESULTS IN ESTIMATED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF 2" TO 4"+ NEEDED TO YIELD OVERLAND OR RIVER FLOODING
ISSUES. CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST POSSIBLE AREAS OF 4"+, BUT ARE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON OVERLAP OF THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION, AS WELL AS
ACHIEVING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE CAMS SUGGEST.
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOCATIONS AT GREATEST
RISK, BUT CURRENTLY APPEAR AROUND THE HIGHWAY 36 TO I-70 CORRIDORS,
AND WEST OF COLUMBIA/BROOKFIELD AREAS WHERE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION
MAY BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SITES AND
BRING MORE RAIN AND TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS FROM 08-11Z A THE SITES.
CIGS WILL BE MVFR WITH THE STORMS AND THEN REMAIN MVFR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL
GET BELOW 2KFT LATE TONIGHT AND THEN RISE TO ABOVE 2KFT TOMORROW
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL CONTINUE AT START OF TAFS AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TO START BUT BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. TOMORROW MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHEN WINDS BECOME WESTERLY, SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE, WITH GUSTS OF 23-25KTS POSSIBLE AT EACH SITE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...AUTEN
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