956
FXUS63 KEAX 200715
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
215 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE FINAL PUSH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OR
HEAVY SHOWERS
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH END OF WEEK
- CHANCES FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY; MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON:
AS OF 07Z, A THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENT IS PRESENT OVER EAST-CENTRAL
KANSAS AND APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED INTO AN MCV OFF THE KICT AND
KTWX RADARS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE KANSAS FLINT HILLS. THERE IS AN
H5 JET STREAK CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AND THIS COMPLEX
CURRENTLY SITS ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET STREAK, ALONG A
NARROW AXIS OF CVA WHICH MAY BE PROMOTING LIFT TO HELP MAINTAIN THIS
SYSTEM. THIS IS ALSO FOLLOWING ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE
THAT ALIGNS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE KC METRO TO NEAR ST. JOSEPH.
THE HRRR DEPICTS THIS COMPLEX FOLLOWING THIS CAPE GRADIENT, AND THE
DEEP LAYER STEERING FLOW AVAILABLE MAY BE ABLE TO KEEP IT ON THE
RIGHT TRACK. THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE FOR IT TO BECOME
OUTFLOW DOMINANT. GIVEN THE MODIFICATIONS TO THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT,
THIS MAY BE ABLE TO KEEP GOING THROUGH 10Z AS IS PROGRESSES TO THE
NORTHEAST. IF IT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH, MAY SEE SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS ALONG ITS PATH, ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EVENTUALLY
THIS WILL OUTRUN THE BETTER INSTABILITY, BECOMING WEAK SHOWERS AS IT
GETS NORTH OF HWY. 36 IF IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR. THEN FOR THE
REST OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAIN SURFACE CYCLONE AND COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD OF HWY. 63, WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
PUSHING EASTWARD BY THE EARLY EVENING. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITH A FEW MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA THAT OCCUR AS THIS
BROAD SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY:
BY WEDNESDAY, THE MAIN LOBE OF VORTICITY WRAPS UP WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS AND TRANSITIONS TO A CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED, WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL
ATTEMPT TO BE ZONAL, BUT A FEW VORT MAXIMA THAT WRAP AROUND THE
CLOSED SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE FLOW THAT IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST,
FURTHER AUGMENTED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS DO DEPICT A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO PASS BY
THAT COULD PRESENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW THE BETTER LIFT WILL
BE MUCH FURTHER NORTH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE UNDER 20
PERCENT. IF THE PATTERN HOLDS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DOES NOT SINK
FURTHER SOUTH, NORTHERN MISSOURI MAY BE ONLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT COULD SEE THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND:
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW STRONGER SHORT-WAVE
PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDING ENOUGH
LIFT TO GENERATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD SEND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK TO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, AND THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE ACTIVITY AT THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. 00Z MODEL RUNS BOTH FROM DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SHOWS THAT THE STRONGER WAA STAY FURTHER SOUTH
OF THE AREA, AS WELL AS BETTER KINEMATICS AND FORCING WHICH MAY
LIMIT HOW ROBUST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BECOME. HOWEVER, IF WE
SEE A FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION AND
BETTER KINEMATIC SUPPORT, WE MAY SEE STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE WEEKEND OR INTO EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. HOW QUICKLY THE
CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM DEPARTS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY LARGELY DRIVE
HOW FRIDAY-SATURDAY EVOLVES FOR RAIN AND STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SITES AND
BRING MORE RAIN AND TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS FROM 08-11Z A THE SITES.
CIGS WILL BE MVFR WITH THE STORMS AND THEN REMAIN MVFR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL
GET BELOW 2KFT LATE TONIGHT AND THEN RISE TO ABOVE 2KFT TOMORROW
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL CONTINUE AT START OF TAFS AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TO START BUT BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. TOMORROW MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHEN WINDS BECOME WESTERLY, SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE, WITH GUSTS OF 23-25KTS POSSIBLE AT EACH SITE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...WFO EAX
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