845
FXUS63 KEAX 210833
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
333 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG KANSAS-MISSOURI STATELINE LATE
TONIGHT; MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAINLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF AREA
- COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH END OF THIS WEEK
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY-SATURDAY, AGAIN
AT START OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT 3-DAYS WORTH OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE AREA
HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW STILL OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
EXPANDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HEIGHT
RISES OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN A
TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA AND HAS ALLOWED A 70KT MID-
LEVEL JET STREAK TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS REGION.
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SIT ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF
THIS JET WHICH MAY RESULT IN CLOUD COVER AT SOME POINT THIS
AFTERNOON NORTH OF HWY. 36, AND PERHAPS SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE AREA SNEAKS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE ANTICYCLONIC
INFLUENCE WITH AVA PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS, KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AT LEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF HWY. 36 THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S, PERHAPS MID 70S FOR
FROM BATES COUNTY OVER TO PETTIS COUNTY. KEEPING TRACK OF A FEW
SHORT-WAVE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THIS BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT
AS OF THIS MORNING ARE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL BE EJECTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT CAM RUNS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING
THESE DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE REGION, THAT THEN GENERATES SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS REGION, WITH MOISTURE RETURN
POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70. WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD, IF A BAROCLINIC ZONE DOES MOVE NORTHWARD,
THIS MAY CREATE AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE FROM EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS
TOWARD WESTERN MISSOURI. CAMS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A CLUSTER OF
SHOWER/STORMS MOVING ALONG THIS AXIS, INCLUDING OUR COUNTIES ALONG
THE KANSAS-MISSOURI STATELINE. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MEAGER ALONG
THIS AXIS OF CONVERGENCE, WITH 00Z HREF MEAN MUCAPE BARELY CROSSING
ABOVE 500 J/KG (IT IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARD THE KANSAS FLINT
HILLS). WITH MID-LEVEL JET STREAK, THERE WILL BE GREATER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES. FOR COUNTIES IN OUR AREA, THIS WILL BE AROUND 50 KTS,
FURTHER WEST COULD POTENTIALLY BE OVER 70KTS. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS, COULD SEE A
FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BUT AS OF THIS MORNING AND PRODUCTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION, THOSE BETTER PROBABILITIES ARE JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MOST PART. STRONGER STORMS COULD PERHAPS DROP
A FEW QUARTER SIZE HAIL STONES. THE 06Z ISSUANCE OF THE SWODY1
OUTLOOK CLIPS PORTIONS OF BATES COUNTY MO AND LINN COUNTY KS IN THE
MARGINAL RISK, BUT THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IS OUTSIDE OF OUR
AREA. FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, THREAT FOR SEVERE STRENGTH IS
EXTREMELY LOW, AND OVERALL VERY MARGINAL IF IT IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE. OTHERWISE, JUST EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN AND FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI, WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
THURSDAY, SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH AREA
OF H5 HEIGHT RISES PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE, PUSHING ANY KIND OF WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY THAT COMES NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL YIELD A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 70S FROM INTERSTATE 70 AND SOUTHWARD, WITH UPPER 60S NORTHWARD.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, EXPECTING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, VORT MAXIMA WITH
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SEND
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE RIDGE PATTERN INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS GENERATES LOWER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROVIDES WAA
AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THESE MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR DECENT LIFT TO PROVIDE SHOWER AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORM OPPORTUNITIES STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW INSTABILITY WILL PLAY
OUT TO SUPPORT A THUNDERSTORM THREAT, AND EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE
FEW DISTURBANCES, MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE QUITE WEAK RESULTING IN VERY
LITTLE SHEAR FOR THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE, NOT
ANTICIPATING OVERLY STRONG STORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT IF WE SEE AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE STRONGEST WAA AXIS
OR MANAGE TO GET SOME KIND OF FEATURE THAT GENERATES MORE SHEAR,
THIS COULD CHANGE EXPECTATIONS. CURRENT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES PAINT
A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS, LEAVING GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THESE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENTS CAN BE
TRICKY THOUGH, WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SOURCES OF BETTER
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR.
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AS PV ANOMALY
PROMOTES TROUGHING OVER THE FRONT RANGE THAT COULD DELIVER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO OUR AREA. ENSEMBLES SHOWING INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL PARTICULARLY MONDAY ACROSS
OUR AREA. DEPENDING ON THE HOW FAR THE WARM FRONT SURGES, COULD
REALIZE THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEEDED FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VFR CONDS WITH CLR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THRU 13Z-14Z AFT WHICH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE PD OVC MID-LVL
CLOUDS AROUND 10-12KFT ARE FCST. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WNW
BTN 5-10KTS THRU 13Z-14Z AFT WHICH THEY WILL VEER TO THE NW AND
INCREASE TO 10-15KTS. THERE IS ALSO THE CHC FOR A FEW GUSTS TO
20KTS BTN 13Z-21Z ESPECIALLY AT KSTJ.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...73
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