733
FXUS63 KEAX 131756
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1256 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE.
- THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SEVERE STORM CHANCES POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND LOOK FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
- THERE IS A SIGNAL LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT OUR
FIRST SHOT AT PROLONGED HOT WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDES NEAR THE
KS/OK/MO/AR BORDER. THIS IS ALLOWING SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO
THE SOUTH CWA THIS MORNING. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM TODAY WILL RIDE
SLOWLY UP THE I-44 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SHOWERS AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TODAY. TONIGHT THIS SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO AN
OPEN WIDE AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT TONIGHT. SATURDAY, A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD AID IN
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER KANSAS WILL DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WITH THE CHANCE (30-40%) OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
MOST OF THE EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK
UNSETTLED. BY MONDAY, MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. THIS
WILL LEAVE SENSIBLE WEATHER RELEGATED TO SHORTWAVES IN THE ZONAL
FLOW. MONDAY, THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS QUIET WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF
INTRODUCES A UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCES
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONSEQUENTLY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR MONDAY RESIDE IN THE 25-35% RANGE. THE MOST FAVORABLE
CHANCES FOR STORMS (POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE) APPEARS TO OCCUR WITH
STRONGER SHORTWAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PWATS FOR THIS ROUND OF STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST BETWEEN 2.00"-2.25" WHICH WOULD MAKE FLOODING A
CONCERN. THE SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ROUND WOULD ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS WELL AS PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A SIGNAL
THAT VERY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DRYING CONDITIONS OUT AND BRINGING OUR
FIRST SHOT OF HOT TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
VFR WITH SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL. A BAND OF LOWER CLOUD ENCAPSULATES SOME OF THE
TERMINAL BRINGING INTERMITTENT SUB-3000FT CIGS. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AS SKY COVERAGE IMPROVES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS
WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNSET. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST ISOLATED RA NEAR THE TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY RA AT THIS TIME. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL MO PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM KIRK
TO KLRY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...PESEL
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