603
FXUS63 KEAX 171706
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS ARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- OUR FIRST CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH 98-105F.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025
CONVECTION FROM LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING, A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS PUSHED OUT
BY LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION ACROSS NE/IA IS EVIDENT ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE APPROACHING THE MISSOURI RIVER ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI (AS
OF 2AM). THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ONE OF THE FOCI OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE SECOND, AS SUGGESTED BY HI-RES MODELS
SUGGESTS A MCV OR ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP OUT OF THE
DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD MOVE
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THESE FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO INTO A VERY MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AS WELL AS A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE VALUES RISING TO 2500-3500J/KG AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IN ADDITION, STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. CONSEQUENTLY,
AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THESE FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON, SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION,
WILL THE BOUNDARY (OUTFLOW) IN PLACE, A ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT HOWEVER, WEAK 0-1KM SHEAR MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
TONIGHT, A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST A MCS DEVELOPING WITH A BOWING SEGMENT ON ITS FORWARD
FLANK. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, VERY STRONG AND DEEP
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA COURTESY OF A 40-50KT
LLJ. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT AND MAY LEAD TO TRAINING OF
STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF PWATS RANGING FROM 1.8"-2.2" LEAD TO
EXTREMELY EFFICIENT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AS
WELL AS RIVER FLOODING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, ON WEDNESDAY A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AND
WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD
THURSDAY PROVIDING HEIGHT RISES TO THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE HEART OF THE HEAT WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AREA MOVES DIRECTLY UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS. HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL MAX OUT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BETWEEN
98-105 WITH SUNDAY BEING A LITTLE DRIER YIELDING HEAT INDICES IN THE
96-101 RANGE. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
MID-ALTANTIC PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT STORM CHANCES
MAY TEMPER CONDITIONS A BIT. HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025
ACTIVE AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD AHEAD WITH PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AREA TERMINALS. MOVED UP -TSRA MENTION FOR
ALL SITES, WITH MVFR VIS AND CEILINGS, AS LATEST FORECAST TRENDS
POINT TO A 00Z TO 03Z START TIME FOR STORMS. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION AND VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY, AROUND 08Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVERNIGHT.
LATE IN THE PERIOD, SCATTERED TSRA MAY MOVE IN TO STJ AND/OR
MCI, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...KURTZ
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