152
FXUS63 KEAX 181815
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
115 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF HARRISONVILLE TO MACON MISSOURI. THE MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE STRONGER WINDS.
- CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH OUR FIRST LONGER DURATION HEAT EVENT
THAT WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL 95-105F.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
THIS MORNINGS RADAR REFLECTIVITY BRIEFLY SHOWED SOME STRONGER
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM PETTIS AND COOPER MO COUNTIES BUT BY 3 AM
HAS WEAKENED AS IT MOVED NORTHEAST. EXPECT TO SEE GREATEST CHANCES
OF SHOWERS LINGERING LINN COUNTY IN KS AND BATES, HENRY, PETTIS AND
COOPER COUNTIES IN MISSOURI. EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THERE
WERE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MO FROM LINN AND MACON
MO COUNTIES NORTHWARD TO IOWA, BUT SINCE DISSIPATED.
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL BE SPCS MARGINAL SEVERE RISK EXTENDING
ALONG LINE FROM HARRISONVILLE TO MACON MO WHICH IS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI TODAY. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN
THE LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AND 1000-1500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
30-35KTS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE WINDS.
HOWEVER THIS THREAT OF WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUNSET.
THE LARGER CONCERN WILL BE THE EXPECTED LONGER DURATION HEAT IN
WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
95-97F IN FAR NORTHWESTER MO ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO 90S FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED TO BE 73-76F ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB 95-103F
ON FRIDAY WITH WARMEST DAY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
100-105F. WHILE EVEN THESE HEAT INDICES MAY BE MARGINAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINES AS THEY MUST REACH 105F FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS,
THIS WILL BE FIRST HEAT EVENT OF LONGER DURATION OF THE SEASON.
WHILE THE DEWPOINT ARE FORECASTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF RELIEF WITH THE
HEAT INDICES, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S.
WE WILL GET A BIT OF RELIEF WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK, EVEN THOUGHT HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S. WE
WILL SEE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE (20-30%) OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN MO AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RETURNS. OUR NEXT BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN MO AND IOWA
BORDER ON TUESDAY WITH AGAIN 20-35% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INITIATE NEAR KMCI, KMKC,
AND KSTJ. STORMS REMAIN TO THE EAST OF KIXD FOR NOW (AS OF 18Z).
STORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG THESE STORMS WILL LAST. ONCE THESE
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE THE AREA, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...COLLIER
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