080
FXUS63 KEAX 191730
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN OUR FIRST HEAT EVENT OF THE SEASON
THAT WILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-105F ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS ACTING TO CLEAR SKIES OUT
AND PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT. THIS FOG WILL LOOK TO BURN OFF BY MID-
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE HEIGHT
RISES ACROSS THE REGION AND ALLOW HIGH TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S TO
NEAR 90. FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WHILE SEASONABLY STRONG WAA WILL GET UNDERWAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL INTRODUCE HE FIRST
DANGEROUS HEAT OF THE SEASON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND,
FACTORING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 100-107F. THE PATTERN, WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED SATURDAY
WILL THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FIRMLY IN PLACE AND CONTINUED WAA. THIS
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
REMAINING IN THE 100-105F RANGE. SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS
HOWEVER, THE AREA WILL STAY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE AND STRONG WAA WILL
CONTINUE KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
BE SLIGHTLY "COOLER" ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
BUT THEY WILL STILL ACHIEVE THE 97-103F. THAT BEING SAID, HEAT
PRODUCTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MONDAY
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL LEAD
SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MONDAY WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS SAGGING FRONT WILL FIND IT DIFFICULT TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE RIDGE HOWEVER STORM CHANCES (30-50%) MAY
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA MONDAY. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK WESTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH MODELS INDICATING SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT. AS SUCH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ARE FORECASTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI NEAREST THE ANALYZED LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AT THAT TIME. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S WITH ADDITION CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LOWER HIGHS
TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S AND INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, WE NOW
HAVE SKC AND VFR CONDITIONS INCLUDING TAF SITES. WINDS ARE CALM
TO VARIABLE 5KTS UNTIL ABOUT 22Z WHERE TAF SITES RANGE 6-10KTS
FROM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AFTER 12Z
TOMORROW WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 14-15KTS AND WIND
GUSTS OF 20-22KTS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SUSTAINED WIND AND WIND GUSTS AFTER 12Z WITH WIND GUSTS OF
24-28KTS BUT DECIDED TO SHOW THE GRADUAL INCREASE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ028-029-
037.
KS...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ103>105.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...WFO EAX
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