173
FXUS63 KEAX 200450
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT FIRST HEAT EVENT OF THE SEASON TO BRING HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100-106F ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OF MID TO UPPER
70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 90S THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.
- SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN MO AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (30 TO 50%) AND NORTHERN MO ON
TUESDAY (20-30%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THIS ON THE FEDERAL
HOLIDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR WITH SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER OUR AREA WHICH HAS
ALLOWED THE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ON
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WE CAN SEE THE RESULTANT INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AS OF 230 PM ACROSS WESTERN KS AND NORTH-CENTRAL MO WITH LOWER
80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE AS MENTIONED TOMORROW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
DIRECTLY OVER US ALONG WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AS RESULT WE
WILL SEE THE FIRST LONGER DURATION HEAT WAVE ON FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN MID TO UPPER
90S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN LOWER TO MID 70S. THE
COMBINATION WILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 106 ON BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS MAY NOT NECESSARILY MEET
THE CRITERIA OF 105 CRITERIA FOR THE 2 HOURS SPECIFICALLY, THE
LONGER DURATION OF THE HEAT ALONG WITH THE LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
IN THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OF MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL AS THIS BEING THE FIRST LONGER HEAT
OF THE SEASON HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE. THE ONLY OTHER
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR IS WE START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY IN FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UPPER 90S.
THERE IS DEFINITELY SOME CONCERN FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXTEND
PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF MO ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WHICH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERATION. ALTHOUGH THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES DROP TO 97-103F AND 99-102F ON MONDAY. HOWEVER,
MODELS SHOW THAT AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY AND THEN INTO MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM DAKOTAS TO
COLORADO AREA BY MONDAY. WITH THE SOUTHWEST PATTERN OVER OUR
AREA THERE ARE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME CHANCES OF WITH FIRST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT STAYING FURTHER NORTH OF OUR AREA ALONG A COLD
FRONT. THEN THE FRONT BECOMES STALLED AND BEGINS TO SAG
SOUTHWARD WITH POTENTIAL FOR THESE SHORTWAVES TO POTENTIAL BRING
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER
VERY LOW CHANCES FOR EACH TIME PERIOD WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 30-50% IN FAR NORTHWESTERN MO, THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MO WITH 20-30% ON TUESDAY. WHILE WE WILL STILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THESE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME RELIEF ON THE EXTREME HEAT INDEXES ON
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS LARGELY EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI. WHILE THESE STORMS ARE HIGH BASED (8-10K FEET), THEY
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN AFTER 15Z FRIDAY, CREATING
GUSTY CONDITIONS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
054.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-
057-060-102>105.
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...BT
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