308
FXUS63 KEAX 201137
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
637 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100F-106F ANTICIPATED.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RANGE FROM 75F-80F,
PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
MESOSCALE
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
A SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) IS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN MO WHICH BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER.
THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MO DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH
CENTRAL MO. RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN
ADVECTING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DIURNAL MIXING
PUSHES SOME OF THIS FASTER MOVING MIDLEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
DOWNWARD CREATING SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THESE WINDS WILL ACT MORE LIKE A BLAST FURNACE
THAN A COOLING BREEZE. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S FOR
MOST TO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS FAR NW MO. HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB
TO AROUND 105F YIELDING OUR FIRST HEAT ADVISORY OF THE YEAR.
MORE IMPORTANTLY, OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 70S PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERY HIGH FOR LOWS >75F WITH 30% TO
40% CHANCES FOR LOWS ABOVE 80F WITHIN THE KC METRO. PLEASE CHECK
IN ON FAMILY AND NEIGHBORS WHO MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT
SUCH AS THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING.
THE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICIES AROUND
100-105F AND 95-103 RESPECTIVELY. THE AXIS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SHIFTS
EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY THANKS FOR A LEEWARD LOW
ACROSS WESTERN NE. THIS PIVOTS THE AXIS OF HOT AIR ADVECTION TO
ORIENT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHERN NE. WHILE A KNOCK DOWN
OF HEAT INDEX VALUES BY 5-10 DEGREES MAY NOT SOUND LIKE MUCH,
IT IS JUST ENOUGH OF A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION TO PROVIDE
SOME RELIEF. THAT SAID, IF THIS LOW DOES NOT MANIFEST ITSELF
AND/OR THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGES COURSE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT MAY EXTEND INTO SUNDAY.
HOT WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER, THE
PICTURE CHANGES MONDAY AS MAGNITUDE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS
QUELLED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MIDDAY. THIS KEEPS HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 100F, AND
INTRODUCES THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
BROAD DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LIGHTS UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY STARTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHERN IA MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KS AND MO
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY MURKY BEYOND MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A STOUT HIGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WITH A COMPETING COOLER AIR MASS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONT LOOKS TO QUICKLY WASH OUT AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN
SIDE OF THE HIGH. MODEL MEMBERS ARE CHALLENGED BY THE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES WHICH ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE LEEWARD FLOW TO THE WEST
AS WELL AS THE CLOCKWISE FLOW OF THE HIGH. THESE RIDGE RUNNERS EACH
BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. ONCE AGAIN, MODELS AGREE THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST; HOWEVER,
CIRCULATING SHORTWAVES FROM THE GULF MIGHT TAP INTO THAT MOISTURE
FLOW INITIATING CONVECTION. THIS BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MO (THOUGH LESS LIKELY). OVERALL THIS
RESULTS IN 20-30 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
BREEZY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SW WINDS ACCELERATED THROUGH THE MORNING
BECOMING GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY
FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-
053-054.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY
FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
MESOSCALE...PESEL
DISCUSSION...PESEL
AVIATION...PESEL
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