002
FXUS63 KEAX 030529
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1229 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
-SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MAINLY AFTER
SUNSET IN OVERNIGHT. CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 20% THROUGH THE
EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 50-60% OVERNIGHT
-ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
TODAY MARKS THE START OF A WARMING PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS AMPLIFIED OVER
THE ROCKIES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDAY LAYER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH OPEN GULF FLOW. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMER, WITH HIGHS
ACROSS THE AREA REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THE ONE GOOD
THING TODAY IS THAT MOISTURE WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SETTLE IN, SO
HUMIDITY LOOKS MANAGEABLE TODAY AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA
AND TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S FOR MOST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY THOUGH, THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY, THESE CONDITIONS WILL PUSH THE HEAT INDEX INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
ON FRIDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 90S
ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO WE CAN EXPECT FOR A SOMEWHAT
UNCOMFORTABLE AFTERNOON FOR THOSE PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS. HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S, ALTHOUGH THOUGH IN THE
KC METRO MAY EVEN SEE VALUES APPROACHING 100 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE
MANY LIKELY HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS ON FRIDAY, AS A REMINDER, TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND STAY HYDRATED. HEAT EXHAUSTION CAN
HAPPEN QUICKLY IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. HEADING INTO FRIDAY
EVENING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE BRINGING THE
RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME TIME TO SORT OUT THE DETAILS, MOST MODELS HAVE COME
INTO AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY AFTER SUNSET WITH CHANCES
INCREASING MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO SLIDE TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT
MODELS SUGGEST MOST LOCATIONS STAY DRY THROUGH ANY EVENING
FESTIVITIES, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS THE
TIME GETS CLOSER. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES PULSE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE UNDEFINED OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
80S THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
QUIET, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. S/SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING DAYTIME,
ALONG WITH FEW/SCT060 FAIR WEATHER CU MAY BLOSSOM OVER THE SITES
AND WIDER AREA.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...CURTIS
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