961
FXUS63 KEAX 050923
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
423 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
- SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THIS WEEK
- MORE SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
H5 RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT COINCIDING WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD,
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITTING OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. LOW-LEVEL
JET AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG WITH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. GOES IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY HAS REACHED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND
STARTING TO SEE SOME RETURNS FROM BOTH KEAX AND KOAX IN NORTHWEST
MISSOURI, BUT NO REPORTS YET OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THE SURFACE.
HRRR ALONG WITH OTHER CAMS DEPICT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS AROUND 10Z, AND THEN SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD
CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. SO FAR STORMS OVER KANSAS
AND NEBRASKA HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. WHILE WE DO HAVE SOME CAPE PRESENT, OVERALL LAPSE RATES
HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, AND MOST OF THE SHEAR HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE LAYER WITH THE LLJ. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
STRONGER WIND GUST WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING,
BUT SEVERE THREAT LIKELY REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BY
15Z, THIS FIRST ROUND MOVES EASTWARD. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK TOWARD A STAGNANT 594DAM HIGH. HOWEVER, SEVERAL
DOWNSTREAM PERTURBATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE LIFT, AND LOW-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HEALTHY THETA-E AIRMASS ACROSS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL KINEMATIC LIFT MAY
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. A WILD-CARD FACTOR WILL BE
IF THERE IS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION,
THAT THEN DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COULD STRENGTHEN SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT BE OVERLY CONDUCIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LIMITING ORGANIZATION, BUT MLCAPE ABOVE 2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
STRONGER ACTIVITY. HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE LOW STATIC
STABILITY WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SHALLOW INVERTED-V STRUCTURE. CERTAINLY APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIPITATION LOADING, AND IF ABLE TO TAP INTO DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB,
COULD SEE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING PROMOTE SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH
DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. THAT WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.
FREEZING LEVEL IS FAIRLY HIGH, AND WITH THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR HAIL STONE TO SEE SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEVERAL SHORT-
WAVES THAT MOVE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND EJECT
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. ENSEMBLE
SUITES HOLD ANYWHERE BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, AND THE NBM HAS
MAINTAINED THIS TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S, AND WILL VARY BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR A
STRONGER H5 VORT MAXIMA ON TUESDAY THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME
STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY, BUT OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE IN MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AVAILABLE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. QPF TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED, AS SOME ENVIRONMENTS
MAY FEATURE DEEP WARM-CLOUD PROCESSES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. SHOULD MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SLOW MOVING STORMS OCCUR, LOW-
END HYDRO ISSUES MAY POP UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
REMNANT SMOKE LINGER BELOW THE INVERSION COULD RESULT IN
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT. SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST COULD LEAD TO MORNING STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER 10Z. THESE SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN A TEMPO OR PREVAILING GROUP
SO JUST HAVE A PROB30 AT THIS POINT. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z, MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BUT STRONG
STORMS COULD LEAD TO MVFR VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...BT
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