136
FXUS63 KEAX 051944
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
244 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS
POSSIBLE.
- SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THIS WEEK
- ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING WHILE THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES. THIS IS OUR FIRST ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. THE SECOND ROUND WILL COME
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA. A
FEW LOCALIZED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURST WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WHICH IS EVIDENCED BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DCAPE
VALUES DUE NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG AND OVERALL SHEAR IS WEAK.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW WITH STORMS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. THE SAGGING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN REVEAL AN INVERTED-V
SOUNDING FOR TOMORROW WITH MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000J/KG
HOWEVER, SHEAR REMAINS EXTREMELY WEAK MITIGATING ANY MORE THAN A
ISOLATED DOWNBURST SCENARIO. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
80S ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHANCE
(15%-25%) FOR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. HIGHS MONDAY ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MID-LVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW. THE NAM IS FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN
IT'S GFS COUNTER PART AND PRODUCES AN MCS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH, SLOWER, AND WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE STORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FORCING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE NBM HOLDING ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE POPS (20%-40%) FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA PROVIDING FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE TAF PD. THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR AVIATORS WILL BE THE CHC FOR LGT TSRA AT THE TAF SITES BTN
01Z-05Z OUT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSS OF MVFR CIGS LATE IN PD BEHIND THE FRONT AFT 12Z-14Z.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SSW BTN 7-12KTS THRU 08Z WHEN WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WSW AND DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS. THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BTN 10Z-14Z VEERING WINDS TO THE W/NW WHILE
REMAINING BTN 5-10KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
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