054
FXUS63 KEAX 020502
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1202 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE POOR AIR QUALITY. AND AIR
QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH SATURDAY.
- CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS
OVERALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY REBOUND FOR LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
RESULTING IN LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS AND COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS IS ALSO RESULTING IN
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. THE SMOKE IS RESULTING
IN POOR AIR QUALITY AND MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. WITH THAT
POOR AIR QUALITY, AND IN COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS, AN AIR
QUALITY ALERT WAS ISSUED FOR THE KC METRO COUNTIES, THROUGH
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE SMOKE, WILL KEEP SMOKE/HAZE MENTION GOING
THROUGH TOMORROW AND ALSO INCREASE SKY COVER.
ONE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS AN MCV EVIDENT ON RADAR IN NORTH
CENTRAL KS THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. WHILE IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW
THIS FEATURE ACTUALLY EVOLVES, IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO DRIER AIR, ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL DISSIPATE. THAT HAS BEEN THE TREND ON RADAR, SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS WELL.
THE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THAT GIVES OUR REGION STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY FLOW. IT'S POSSIBLE THIS FLOW REGIME
GIVE US PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT AREN'T ALL THAT PREDICTABLE
DAYS IN ADVANCE. BUT OVERALL, THERE'S NOT A STRONG SIGNAL OF
PRECIPITATION. BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT
SOUTHWESTERN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THAT EASTWARD
SHIFT, COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY, WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
INCREASING. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEWPOINTS WARM BACK INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS CHANCES FOR 80 DEGREE PLUS DEWPOINTS
RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEK WITH 10-25% PROBABILITIES BY FRIDAY.
SO IT'S POSSIBLE EXTREME HUMIDITY DEVELOPS AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THIS TIME THOUGH, ENSEMBLE
MEAN 500MB HEIGHTS KEEP THE CORE OF THE RIDGE, AND THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES, TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
MUCH THE SAME STORY AS PREVIOUS COUPLE/FEW ITERATIONS OF TAFS.
ASIDE FROM SMOKE, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CURRENT/RECENT
SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THE CONCENTRATION OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE IS
LESS THAN EARLIER IN THE DAY, PROMPTING ONLY VFR MENTIONS OF
SMOKE/FU WITH THIS ISSUANCE. CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODIC MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM SMOKE, BUT HRRR RUNS AND CURRENT
OBS TEND TO SUGGEST LESSER WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY FEW/SCT HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND WINDS OUT
OF THE NE SHIFTING TO E/ESE AROUND/LESS THAN 10KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ028-029-037.
KS...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ103>105.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CURTIS
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