483
FXUS63 KEAX 020857
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
357 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES HAS RESULTED IN REDUCED AIR QUALITY. AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- COOLER, MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HOTTER, MORE HUMID CONDITIONS POSSIBLY RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES HAS SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING
IN A MILKY OR HAZY LOOK TO THE SKY SLIGHTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.
SOME OF THE SMOKE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, REDUCING
AIR QUALITY. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED AND WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER GROUPS OF PEOPLE WITH HIGH SENSITIVITY TO
WORSENED AIR QUALITY MAY STILL BE IMPACTED.
A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MN/WI BORDER HAS RESULTED IN WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN PLEASANT. HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE, CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY QUIET TODAY.
FOR TOMORROW AND MONDAY, A FEW H500 SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
BRINGING SPOTTY CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAINLY FOR EASTERN KS AND WESTERN
MO. HI-RES MODELS DEVELOP STORMS FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND TRACK
THEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG
STORMS WILL LINGER. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONGER THAN
EXPECTED, THEY COULD RESULT IN SOME SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THEY
EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT
OVER THE AREA, BROAD-SCALE SUBSIDENCE, WEAK FORCING, AND VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD MAKE FOR AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CAMS ALSO SUGGEST STORMS WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR AREA. SO FOR NOW, DECIDED TO
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY, A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AMPLIFIES
AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST. SIMULTANEOUSLY, OUR WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING US TO KICK OFF A WARMING TREND. WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MID
80S TO LOW 90S.
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW TRIPLE DIGITS RETURN. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE GUIDANCE TO
DETERMINE IF HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY. THE NBM IS SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HWY-50. OBVIOUSLY, BEING THIS FAR OUT,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY THAT AREAS WILL ACTUALLY REACH ADVISORY
LEVEL CRITERIA ESPECIALLY WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP RETURNING
AS A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE EJECTS OUT THE FRONT RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
MUCH THE SAME STORY AS PREVIOUS COUPLE/FEW ITERATIONS OF TAFS.
ASIDE FROM SMOKE, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CURRENT/RECENT
SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THE CONCENTRATION OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE IS
LESS THAN EARLIER IN THE DAY, PROMPTING ONLY VFR MENTIONS OF
SMOKE/FU WITH THIS ISSUANCE. CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODIC MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM SMOKE, BUT HRRR RUNS AND CURRENT
OBS TEND TO SUGGEST LESSER WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY FEW/SCT HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND WINDS OUT
OF THE NE SHIFTING TO E/ESE AROUND/LESS THAN 10KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ028-029-
037.
KS...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ103>105.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...CURTIS
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