459
FXUS63 KEAX 050410
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1110 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGHS
BACK IN THE LOWER 90S F.
- GENERALLY DRY, LOW (15 TO 25%) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
NORTHWESTERN MO/NORTHEASTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KC METRO
AREA.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE (25 TO 40%) OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXIT EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CURRENTLY, WELL DEPICTED ON WV IMAGERY. 17Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM
THE GREAT LAKES BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO
EASTERN KANSAS. IN RESPONSE, SURFACE WINDS HAVE REMAINED RATHER
LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST. TO THE NORTH, A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS IT RIDES ALONG THE
GENERAL SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER.
KOAX REVEALS A TIGHT MCV CURRENTLY NORTH OF OMAHA, PROVIDING PERHAPS
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME REMNANT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER, AS THIS FEATURE IS MOVING INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, VERY WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY, NO
NOTABLE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS PROJECTION. UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON.
INTO TUESDAY, THE H500 RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE TO THE PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH THE MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL NOT
SET UP COMPLETELY THROUGH PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY, BUT EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S, NEAR 90 ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO
WEDNESDAY, MORE ROBUST WAA IS EXPECTED TO SET UP, WITH H850 THERMAL
AXIS OF 18 TO 20 C DEVELOPS THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL REALLY USHER
IN OUR RETURN TO MORE NORMAL HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES, LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FIRST
CHANCE WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS,
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE ADVANCING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH STRETCHED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM NWMO/NEKS INTO
THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. A FOCUSED LLJ WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST WITH SUFFICIENT PWATS AND INSTABILITY FOR ONE OR TWO ROBUST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
GENERALLY, WITH BETTER DYNAMICS, NBM PROBS FOR PRECIP REMAIN
GREATEST NEARER THE VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER ND/MN AND DROP OFF
GRADUALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD MO/KS, ABOUT 20-30% FOR NW MO/NE
KS FOR PRECIP >0.10." PRECIP CHANCES WILL END THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A STOUT H500 SHORT
WAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE PNW. IN RESPONSE, THE SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL
HOLD UP AND FLATTEN OUT. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
H500 TROUGH, WHICH CROSSED THE NORTHERN PLAINS, TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT, WITH INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY. MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR, WITH THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT TRAILING BEHIND OFF THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE BUOYED BY THE LLJ AND AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AXIS WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS. CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY
BE ELEVATED AND LIKELY ANCHORED ALONG THE 925 OR 850 FRONT. SEVERE
RISK APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY. AGAIN,
NBM PROBS THIS FAR SOUTH ARE WEAKER, THEREFORE WILL HOLD WITH 15-25%
POPS AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WAA INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES PUSH THE MID 90S F.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
PNW TROUGH FINALLY ADVANCES EAST THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS
IT MAKES IT'S SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNAL
CU BUILDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KURTZ
AVIATION...PESEL
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