244
FXUS63 KEAX 051114
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGHS BACK IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE
FOR CENTRAL MO.
- LOW-END CHANCES (BELOW 20%) FOR PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWESTERN
MO/NORTHEASTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
(20%-50%) BEGIN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. CONTINUES ITS
TRACK TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 80S.
WEDNESDAY MORNING, A WEAK H500 VORT MAXIMA PASSING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE IN COMBINATION WITH A 35-45 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN
(INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE) WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP. AS
STORMS TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, EASTERN KS AND NORTHWESTERN MO
MAY SEE A FEW STORMS IF STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER. SEVERE WEATHER IS
VERY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY (UP TO 1,000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE), LIMITED SHEAR (20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR), AND OVERALL
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THEY
COLLAPSE. EVEN THOUGH THE NBM KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY, MOST OF THE HI-
RES CAMS AGREE ON A WEAKENING MCS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY CLIPPING NORTHEASTERN KS AND NORTHERN
MO. STORMTOTAL QPF REMAINING UNDER .15" AND PWATS AROUND 1.5"
SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL IS LESS LIKELY A CONCERN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SURFACE CYCLONE EJECTING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE. THETA-E ADVECTION
FROM THE GULF ALONG WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE H850 THERMAL
RIDGE, WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASINGLY HOTTER, MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 MAY EVEN APPROACH TRIPLE DIGIT
INDICES.
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMES THURSDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HELP FROM A RE-
INTENSIFYING H850 LOW-LEVEL JET. ONCE AGAIN, AREAS IN NORTHWESTERN
MO LOOK THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS, HOWEVER WEAK INSTABILITY, A
LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, AND A CAPPING INVERSION WILL MAKE
IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR STORMS REMAIN STRONG. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN THEMSELVES, THEY COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH HELP FROM THE H850 LOW-LEVEL JET.
THURSDAY, A STOUT UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL CANADA. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED
AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LREF KEEPS DAILY CHANCES
RANGING FROM 20%-50% FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. SUSPECT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SPORADIC AND HARD TO FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT TEMPERATURES, ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S COULD BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED BY
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. AREAS THAT GET MORE PRECIP COULD
EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LESS PRECIPITATION (NEAR CENTRAL MO MOST LIKELY) COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH TRIPLE
DIGITS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(105 F). HOWEVER, THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...COLLIER
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