839
FXUS63 KEAX 060942
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
442 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY NORTH
OF THE KC METRO. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ARE RATHER LOW TODAY.
- NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TODAY. HOTTER, MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.
TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION BY
FRIDAY.
- NEAR-DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (20%-60%) THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
A MCS ENTERING NORTHWEST IA THIS MORNING (AS OF 8Z) CONTINUES ITS
TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUPPORT VIA A LOW-
LEVEL JET EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE CONVECTION HAS
LARGELY BEEN SUB-SEVERE OWING TO GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR AND INCREASING
NOCTURNAL INHIBITION. NEVERTHELESS, THE MCS IS DECENTLY ORGANIZED,
WITH A LONG-LASTING LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE AND A WELL-DEVELOPED
COLD POOL TO ITS NORTH. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE NOT
SIMULATING THE MCS WELL, WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MPAS GUIDANCE LOOKS
OVERDONE, IN GENERAL, WHILE THE RRFS HAS LITTLE REPLICATION OF THE
MCS EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE HRRR HAS
SUBSTANTIAL VARIABILITY ON THE DURATION AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
MCS BEFORE ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION. THUS, THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS
LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. GIVEN THE DECENTLY-ORGANIZED
APPEARANCE, WE SUSPECT THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS REACHING OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING, THOUGH TIMING IS ALSO UNCERTAIN GIVEN SOME HINTS
OF DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IN EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE MCS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA; HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST AS STORMS
COLLAPSE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL
RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ENCOMPASSING AREAS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM HARRISONVILLE TO MOBERLY. DESPITE THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND,
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MCS COULD RE-INITIATE STORMS SOME TIME
IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING, SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP
IN AREAS NOT STABILIZED BY THE REMNANT MORNING CONVECTION.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.,
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY AND INTO THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES), BUT INCREASING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (THAT
IS, IF CONVECTION DOES NOT INHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING).
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, A H500 SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES (~25-35%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE
TO MAINTENANCE OF STORMS WHEREVER THEY DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST MOST
OF THE MORNING THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, PINPOINTING WHERE THESE
STORMS WILL OCCUR IS VERY CHALLENGING, PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE POOR
MODEL PERFORMANCE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION THAT WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY PLAY A ROLE IN WHERE SUBSEQUENT STORMS DEVELOP/PROGRESS.
THUS, A GENERAL BROAD-BRUSH OF POPS IS PROVIDED IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, OWING TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. SEVERE-
WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION
THAT OCCURS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING; ANY STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND/OR MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.
SHOULD CONVECTION MOSTLY DISSIPATE OR NOT AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 F. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IN THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, OWING TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PREDECESSOR CONVECTION.
FRIDAY, A H500 SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COMBINED WITH A RE-
INTENSIFYING H850 LOW-LEVEL JET COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS, THOUGH
THIS SIGNAL FOR THIS IS FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS TIME (LIKELY IN PART
GIVEN THE EXPANDING RIDGE AND WARMING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES). AS THE
JET DIURNALLY WEAKENS, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY. TEMPERATURE-WISE, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS, EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE H850 THERMAL RIDGE, AND THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF
THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. HIGHS RANGING IN THE
90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH THIS
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL AND CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE OF
POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION.
STARTING SATURDAY, THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF A DYNAMIC
UPPER LOW TRANSITING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES WILL DRAG A SURFACE FRONT DOWN INTO CENTRAL KS.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A STOUT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON PINPOINTING FAVORED
AREAS AT THIS POINT.
THE PATTERN CONTINUES ITS UNSETTLED TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR STORMS. THE LREF KEEPS DAILY RAIN
CHANCES (UP TO 60% EACH DAY) FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE FREQUENCY OF STORMS, FLOODING CONCERNS
COULD INCREASE GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PREDICTABILITY WITH
THIS PATTERN IS QUITE LOW. SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED; HOWEVER, MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP COULD WORK TO KEEP
HOTTER TEMPERATURES IN CHECK THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING SOUTH
OUT OF IOWA. EVENING MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH MCS ON
WEDNESDAY, AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z IN
KSTJ, KMCI, KMKC TERMINALS. THOUGHT BULK OF STORMS WOULD BE EAST
OF KIXD, SO LEFT MENTION OUT FOR THE TIME BEING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...BT
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