418
FXUS63 KEAX 062329
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
629 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
FRIDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
- LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A 600 DAM H5 HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW
MEXICO WITH ATTENDANT MID/UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. MEANWHILE, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MADE ITS WAY
FROM NEBRASKA INTO IOWA, WHICH WAS THE IMPETUS FOR THIS
MORNING'S MCS THAT DESCENDED OUT OF THE OMAHA AREA AND
COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA. CONVECTION HAS CLEARED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND, ALTHOUGH THE MAXT FORECAST FOR
LOCATIONS MOST IMPACTED BY THIS MORNING'S MCS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
BY LATE TONIGHT, A 40 KNOT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTED LOW
LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS, NOSING
INTO FAR SE NEBRASKA WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND AROUND 20 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM
BULK SHEAR. THIS MAY GENERATE ANOTHER MCS LATE TONIGHT, AND THE
18Z HRRR DOES INDEED DEVELOP AN MCS BY AROUND 1 AM ACROSS SE
NEBRASKA AND NE KANSAS, WITH THIS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (ALTHOUGH ADMITTEDLY I
CAN'T SAY I HAVE PARTICULARLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE HRRR OUTPUT
AT THIS TIME). IF AN MCS DOES OCCUR, A FEW WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA MAY BE POSSIBLE. AS SUCH, SPC DOES
MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH 7 AM TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY, ALLOWING FOR HEAT INDICES
TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, THE MID/UPPER HIGH ELONGATES FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AS A TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AND HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT MORE, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO EVEN 30 MPH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A
DEEPENING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS WILL
SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO SE
NEBRASKA, AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THIS CONVECTION COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
SATURDAY MORNING, AND CURRENT GRIDS SHOW AROUND 20% POP FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 36. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL
OUT JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA ACROSS NW IOWA AND SE NEBRASKA,
WITH ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ENHANCED (50+ KNOT) MID
LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS MOVING FROM COLORADO INTO SE NEBRASKA BY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WHICH MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION BY AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG, BUT AS OF NOW SPC HAS NOT HIGHLIGHTED ANY AREAS WITHIN
EVEN A 15% RISK. WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9", LOCALLY
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, AND WPC HAS PLACED
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR 7 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS RELATIVELY LITTLE MODEL AGREEMENT, BUT
SIDED WITH THE HRRR/RAP WHICH SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ~6Z. STORMS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH
BASED (8-10K FEET), BUT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
THAN OTHER LOCATIONS, SO WENT WITH A TEMPO AT KSTJ TERMINAL
WHILE OTHER TERMINALS ARE COVERED BY A PROB30. OUTSIDE OF THE
STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH A SOUTH WIND.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...BT
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