188
FXUS63 KEAX 071733
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1233 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE (UP TO A 30% CHANCE)
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH FRIDAY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAY. TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY
(>75% CHANCE) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING ONCE AGAIN WITH THE STORM EVOLUTION THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE OUTPUT RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL.
MUCH OF THE 00Z MPAS GUIDANCE APPEARS OUT TO LUNCH ALREADY, WITH
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SIMULATED TO HAVE BEGUN BY NOW IN
THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI. INSTEAD, STRONG CONVECTION HAS INITIATED MUCH FARTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN IOWA. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST ALONG I-80 IN IOWA AND TO THE SOUTH IN
EASTERN KANSAS, BUT IT REMAINS RATHER UNCLEAR HOW STRONG/WIDESPREAD
THIS CONVECTION WILL BECOME. WITH THE HRRR/RRFS/MPAS SHOWING SUCH
WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING, THIS LOOKS VERY MUCH TO BE A
NOWCAST-TYPE SITUATION (ONCE AGAIN), WITH POTENTIAL CONSIDERABLE
EDITS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE GENERAL MODEL TREND
RECENTLY HAS BEEN TO BACK OFF THE POTENTIAL, KEEPING COVERAGE OF
STORMS RELATIVELY SPARSE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
SUBTLE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX, WILL KEEP SOME POP
MENTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTH. WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP, SEVERE-
WEATHER CHANCES ARE LOW GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE TIME OF
DAY. WITH STORMS BEING ELEVATED, LAYERS OF SUBSATURATION IN THE LOW
LEVELS, AND REASONABLY QUICK STORM MOTIONS, ANY THREATS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE VERY LIMITED.
THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE PLAINS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS (DUE TO THE APPROACHING/EXPANDING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE) WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 90S (A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES). HOWEVER,
THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH FORECAST HIGHS OWING TO
POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING, SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE.
AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK INTO
FRIDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO/THROUGH OUR REGION.
A FEW WEAK VORT MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THAT COULD PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER/STORM, BUT GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGING AND WARMING AIR ALOFT -- THINK PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS
PRETTY LOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING; NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE H850 THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST PRIOR TO THIS POINT AND IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES, HELD OFF ON HEAT-ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY FOR NOW.
NEVERTHELESS, FORECAST HEAT INDICES NEAR/ABOVE 105 F WOULD SUGGEST
PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED; WILL EXAMINE ANOTHER SET OF MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING HEAT-HEADLINE DECISIONS.
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A STOUT UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER, FLATTENING THE BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CATALYSTS FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES STARTING SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS OUT AND
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AND PWATS APPROACHING 2", THERE MAY BE A FEW
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. BEING THIS
FAR OUT, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS
FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. UNCERTAINTY ALSO LIES
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD MODULATE DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
TIME PERIOD FOR TAF SITES. HOWEVER, FOR AREAS TO WEST FROM KCDJ AND
WEST EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE 22Z AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE SAME AREA. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 22Z THIS AREA. WINDS THROUGH FOR THE TAF SITES
EXPECT BE FROM THE S-SE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 24KTS AT
KIXD, BUT LIGHTER WITH GUSTS 14-16KTS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITE
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE DIURNAL PATTERN IN THE
EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-
22KTS FOR TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...WFO EAX
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