297
FXUS63 KEAX 072100
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
400 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
- HOTTEST DAY EXPECTED TO BE TOMORROW, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT REGION WIDE 1 PM THROUGH 8 PM
TOMORROW.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
THE MCS WHICH INITIALLY DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL IOWA AROUND 3 AM
THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI HAS FINALLY LARGELY DECAYED AND EXITED THE REGION TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER, WITH RAIN-COOLED AIR AND SOME CLOUD COVER
LINGERING, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS IMPACTED BY THE MCS HAVE
BEEN REVISED DOWN BY QUITE A BIT (3 PM TEMP AT KIRKSVILLE IS
ONLY 78). ELSEWHERE, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY AS
ADVERTISED WITH 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S, AS THE 599 DAM H5 HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NM/AZ
BORDER CONTINUES TO HEAVILY INFLUENCE OUR CURRENT WEATHER. WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 2
OVERNIGHTS, THERE IS VIRTUALLY ZERO CHANCE FOR AN MCS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW, A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE, THE
STOUT H5 HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER SW NEW MEXICO, BUT THE RIDGE
BECOMES MORE ELONGATED EAST TO WEST, ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA PLAINS
TO MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS EVEN MID 70S. AND WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR
SOMETHING TO DERAIL THE HEAT. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED CWA WIDE FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM TOMORROW FOR HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES.
BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS, WITH A
DEEPENING CLOSED H5 LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THIS SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SW IOWA
AND SE NEBRASKA, STALLING OUT ESSENTIALLY ON THE DOORSTEP OF
FAR NW MISSOURI BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS ACROSS NW MISSOURI FOR SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS (SOUTH OF THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARD THE STALLED
COLD FRONT). TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH THE UPPER 90S TOWARD THE
OZARK PLATEAU, AND THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ENHANCED (50+ KNOT) MID LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS MOVING FROM COLORADO INTO SE NEBRASKA BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION BY AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, AND SPC HAS INDEED HIGHLIGHTED
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9",
LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, AND WPC HAS A
VERY SIMILAR AREA (ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70) HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY. CHANCE
TO LIKELY (40% TO 60%) POPS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A HIGHER THREAT FOR LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS WE GET ANOTHER WAVE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT TO INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONT (WHICH SHOULD BEGIN
TO MAKE SOME VERY SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS BY SUNDAY NIGHT)
AND PWATS INCREASING A BIT CLOSER TO 2". ACCORDINGLY, WPC HAS
UPGRADED AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AND EVEN TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CWA, BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AND EVENTUALLY COMPLETELY
DISSOLVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
TIME PERIOD FOR TAF SITES. HOWEVER, FOR AREAS TO WEST FROM KCDJ AND
WEST EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE 22Z AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE SAME AREA. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 22Z THIS AREA. WINDS THROUGH FOR THE TAF SITES
EXPECT BE FROM THE S-SE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 24KTS AT
KIXD, BUT LIGHTER WITH GUSTS 14-16KTS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITE
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE DIURNAL PATTERN IN THE
EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-
22KTS FOR TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...WFO EAX
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