583
FXUS63 KEAX 251951
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
251 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
70S THIS WEEK.
- VERY LOW-END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST MO WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA.
AT H700, A SHORTWAVE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE KS/OK
BORDER COLLOCATED WITH A RIBBON OF MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN A FEW
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS PRIMARILY IN KS AND OK. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS
HAVE NIPPED THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA (LINN, MIAMI, AND
BATES COUNTIES) AND PRODUCED MOSTLY INCONSEQUENTIAL RAIN AMOUNTS. AT
THE SURFACE, A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SD/MN BORDER WHICH HAS KEPT OUR
WINDS LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH. THE HIGH HAS USHERED IN AN
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS THAT HAS KEPT OUR TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL RANGE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TOMORROW MORNING, AS THE AXIS OF THE
ANOMALOUSLY COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH, CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE QUICKLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORNING
LOWS RANGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WHICH HAPPEN TO BE JUST A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ALSO, HI-RES MODELS ARE LATCHING ON TO A FEW SHOWERS INITIATING OVER
SOUTHEAST NE AS A H700 VORTICITY BAND PROVIDES JUST ENOUGH LIFT.
THESE SHOWERS THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF MO AS THEY
DISSIPATE. FOR NOW, LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AS THE HREF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING CHANCES BELOW 30%. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL SKEW-
T SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT COULD WORK
AGAINST PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. OTHERWISE,
THE REST OF TUESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
AND AREAS NEAR CENTRAL MO POSSIBLY NEARING 80.
AS WE APPROACH MID-WEEK, THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. SHIFTS SLOWLY TO EAST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE (OVER KS AND SOUTHERN MO) WILL BE THE
CATALYSTS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW,
THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEM TO BE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF OUR AREA WHERE BETTER FORCING WILL BE. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OF
STORMS COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH DEPENDING ON HOW THE SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE LREF SHOWS A 50% CHANCE THAT THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE KC METRO. GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALSO
BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION OR LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW
70S (POTENTIALLY IN THE UPPER 60S).
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH DESCENDS FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO OUR NORTHEAST REORIENTING OUR WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP OUR DEW POINTS FROM RAPIDLY INCREASING AS WE DO NOT
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. HIGHS DO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY TRANSITS EASTWARD.
EVEN STILL, TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ESPECIALLY
WITH SPOTTY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY IMPEDING HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...COLLIER
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