974
FXUS63 KEAX 261722
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1222 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES IN MID 70S TO LOWER 80S NEXT FEW DAYS
- RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WHERE RAIN SHOWERS OCCUR, WARMER WHERE CLOUD
BREAKS OCCUR
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
H5 RIDGE AXIS HAS MADE A SUBTLE EASTWARD SHIFT TOWARD THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IN MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SPANS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. WE WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK SHORT-WAVE PERTURBATIONS MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SOME TIMES JUST A FEW CLOUDS, OTHER TIMES
MORE OVERCAST. FOR THIS TUESDAY MORNING, 300MB JET STREAK IS MOVING
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, BUT ON THE BACK END OF THE JET STREAK
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WEAK LIFT IN LEVELS ABOVE 700MB,
WHERE AT THIS VERTICAL LEVEL THERE IS ALSO A MODERATELY STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT PRESENT ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR.
CAMS THIS MORNING HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY BACKED OFF ON PRODUCING SHOWER
ACTIVITY, THOUGH SIMULATED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS DO SHOW
SOME WEAK SHOWERS BETWEEN 10Z-16Z THIS MORNING. THE 00Z HREF MEAN
QPF WAS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY'S RUN, BUT SINCE 00Z LAST
EVENING, OTHER CAMS HAVE SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND. AS THE BACK OF THE
JET STREAK EXITS, WE MAY SEE SOME RADAR REFLECTIVITY IN NORTHWEST
MISSOURI WITH PASSING CLOUDS. BELOW 1KM, RH VALUES ARE FAIRLY LOW
THOUGH, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MOST HYDROMETEORS NOT REACHING
THE SURFACE. A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS THIS PASSES
THROUGH, BUT, THE ENVIRONMENT POINTS TO UNFAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN. THEREFORE, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW SPOTS OF 80F MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION, THOUGH 80F FALLS OUT OF THE INNER-QUARTILE RANGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH WEAK WINDS AS THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE MOVES
THROUGH, MOST OF THE HEATING WILL BE DIABATICALLY DRIVEN, AS THERE
WILL NOT BE ANY PROMINENT TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REGIME AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE TODAY.
WEDNESDAY, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING STARTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH
WILL FORCE THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WHILE ALSO
DEAMPLIFYING. THIS IS PROGGED TO SEND ANOTHER LOCALIZED VORT MAXIMA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY,
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO REDUCE SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF KANSAS. THIS WILL ALSO FORCE THE ANTICYCLONE EASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WAA REGIME WITH DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT, EVENTUALLY PUSHING A WARM FRONT FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS WILL SHIFT THE SHOWER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
SITTING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THE PAST FEW DAYS EASTWARD, ALONG WITH
INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHICH MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING A WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE HEAVIER QPF AXIS OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS, AS THE BETTER MID-LEVEL LIFT HAS BEEN SHIFTING FURTHER
WEST COMPARED TO WHAT WAS PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BY
PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE CYCLES OVER THE WEEKEND. GEFS PROBABILITIES
FOR AT LEAST 0.10 INCHES OF QPF ARE GREATEST ALONG A LINE FROM NORTH
OF WICHITA TO THE OK-KS-MO-AR FOUR STATES REGION, AND THIS DOES CLIP
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE KC METRO WITH AROUND 40 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.10 INCHES OF QPF. COUNTIES FURTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI ARE STILL HOLDING ONTO ABOUT 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE IN GEFS GUIDANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.10 INCHES OF QPF. A SECOND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA IS PROGGED TO REINFORCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS PATTERN AND WESTWARD SHIFT OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DOES
COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
STRONGER WAA REGIME WOULD FAVOR TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING
BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT, IF THERE IS AN
EXPANSIVE RAIN OR CLOUD SHIELD LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE AFTERNOON, DAYTIME HEATING LIMITATION MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S. HOW FAR NORTHEAST THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT SURGES
COULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN THIS. AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AND WEST
HAVE INNER-QUARTILE RANGES (AMONGST NBM MEMBERS) GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S, WHILE LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WHICH COULD MISS
OUT ON THE HEAVIER RAINFALL HAVE WIDER SPREAD, WITH BETTER POTENTIAL
TO HIT THE LOWER 80S.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A RIDGE
ATTEMPTING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AGAIN, BUT ACTIVITY
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY LARGELY PREVENT THIS, RESULTING MID-
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH RATHER WEAK. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH RIGHT NOW FORCING APPEARS RATHER TRANSIENT. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING WHEN
WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...COLLIER
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