530
FXUS63 KEAX 262310
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S CONTINUE
THIS WEEK
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND TROUGHING EXTENDING
FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA. THIS HIGH HAS
BROUGHT A SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS THAT HAS KEPT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
70S. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SLOWLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AS A H500 SHORTWAVE RIDING THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE WILL HELP INITIATE STORMS OVER WESTERN KS AND OK. AS
STORMS TRACK TO THE EAST, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
EAST REORIENTING OUR WINDS TO SOUTH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HI-RES MODELS SLIGHTLY DISAGREE ON TIMING OF STORMS. THE NAM 4KM HAS
THE STORMS REACHING OUR SOUTHWESTERN EDGE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEREAS THE 12Z HRRR HAS THE STORMS REACHING OUR EAST A FEW HOURS
LATER. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE DURING
THE EARLY EVENING INTO NIGHT AS THE HREF SHOWS HIGHER PROBABILITIES
DURING THE 5-7 PM TIME-FRAME. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THAT THE
LOCATION OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL GO.
THE HREF HAS KEPT A 30-40% CHANCE FOR STORMS TO GET AS FAR NORTH AS
THE KC METRO. THESE STORMS TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST MOVING FARTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN NM/TX
BORDER IT WILL PROVIDE LIFT INITIATING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. THE LOW-LEVEL JET RE-INTENSIFIES OVER NORTH TX INTO
OK INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO NIP THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AGAIN, THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILL
PROGRESS. THE LREF KEEPS A 30-40% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
FOR THE KC METRO AND A BELOW 20% CHANCE FOR AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS
ST. JOSEPH FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
NO SEVERE IS ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER ROUND OF STORMS ON WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY AND BETTER SHEAR STAYING
WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE PWATS AS HIGH AS 1.8
INCHES MAINLY FOR EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO. THIS, COMBINED WITH 10-
12 KFT WARM CLOUD LAYERS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NEAR
MIAMI, LINN, AND BATES COUNTIES. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER OUR
AREA, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
OUR AREA BOTH DAYS. FORECASTED RAIN TOTALS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COMBINED RANGE UP TO 4 INCHES (HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE FOR
AREAS NEAR LINN AND BATES COUNTIES). TAKING INTO ACCOUNT FORECASTED
RAIN TOTALS EXTENDED OVER A 24 HOUR TIME-FRAME AND FFG, ANY
FLOODING, IF AT ALL, WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED NEAR LINN, MIAMI,
AND BATES COUNTIES. THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR LINN,
MIAMI, AND BATES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A MARGINAL RISK EXTENDING FROM
ST. JOSEPH TO SEDALIA. FOR THURSDAY, A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WAS ISSUED MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.
GOING INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH TRACKS TO THE SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA SHIFTING OUR WINDS BACK TO THE EAST. THIS WILL HELP
CONDITIONS STAY PLEASANT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE
A FEW VERY LOW-END CHANCES (BELOW 10%) FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. BETTER
CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE PD WITH FEW-SCT
HIGH CLOUDS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT LATE IN THE PD AS STORMS PASS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED A FM GRP AT IXD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. OTRW...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB THRU 15Z
AS THEY GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH. AFT 15Z
WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...73
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