973
FXUS63 KEAX 271052
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
552 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
..UPDATED 12Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS WEST/SOUTHWEST OF KANSAS CITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT; SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- TEMPERATURES BETWEEN MID 70S AND LOWER 80S NEXT FEW DAYS
- SCATTERED RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY MORE
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
H5 RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD WITH TROUGHING ARRIVING IN
THE WESTERN CONUS. STRONGER DAVA MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WHICH WILL PROMPT THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE TO SLIDE EASTWARD IN TANDEM
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ADVANCING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DOES
INDICATE A VORT MAXIMA MOVING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS, CO-LOCATED WITH NARROW AREA OF 300MB DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE LIFT IN WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURE, RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE, SURFACE
FLOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHERLY FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, RESULTING IN STRONGER WAA AND BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH A WARM FRONT
NORTHEASTWARD AS A SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT GENERATED BY THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 16-19Z THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, REACHING THE KS-MO STATE
LINE AREA PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF KANSAS CITY AFTER 23Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR ALONG WITH OTHER CAMS CONCENTRATE MOST OF THE
FORCING SOUTHWEST OF KANSAS CITY HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT MOST
PROGGED MU CAPE VALUES STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE 1000 J/KG EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 135 / U.S. HWY. 81 CORRIDOR. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE BUT BETTER THUNDER POTENTIAL MY BE CONFINED FROM THE
FLINT HILLS AND WESTWARD OVER KANSAS. OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, ANOTHER VORT MAXIMA MOVES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE AXIS
AND WILL FURTHER DEEPEN THE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER KANSAS, ALLOWING
THE WARM FRONT TO ADVANCE FURTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE IN THE WARM
SECTOR, AND MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INCLUDING CAMS ARE
CONCENTRATING THIS BETWEEN WICHITA KS AND JOPLIN MO. THIS AREA OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTHWEST FROM THE MAIN
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI, BUT A SECONDARY GRADIENT
THAT IS MORE MOISTURE BASED IS DEPICTED FROM WICHITA TO JOPLIN WHERE
A LOT OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ON. GEFS AND OTHER COARSER SCALE
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR
EXCEEDING ONE INCH OF QPF ALONG THIS LINE. HREF LOCAL PROBABILITY
MATCHED MEAN VALUES SUGGEST POCKETS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KANSAS CITY BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LONGER DURATION OF THIS
RAINFALL, ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WHICH MAY PREVENT THIS
FROM BEING A TRUE CONVECTIVE MODE, HYDRO CONCERNS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIMITED. EVEN IN AREAS WITH OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN DEPICTED, GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING IT MAY TAKE AT LEAST 8-12 HOURS TO BE FULLY REALIZED.
NEXT QUESTION, IS HOW FAR EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOWER
ACTIVITY OCCURS? BOTH CAMS AND COARSER SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE
DEPICT BETTER MID-LEVEL LIFT FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN KANSAS, WHICH
LINES UP WITH THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT DISCUSSED ABOVE. THE WARM FRONT
THOUGH IS PROGGED TO REACH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND
WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT, THE LEADING EDGE OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SHOULD REACH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTRODUCING AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL, THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN AREAS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KANSAS CITY. THIS
MORNING'S CAMS ARE MATCHING THE WESTWARD SHIFT THAT THE GFS AND
ECMWF STARTED DEPICTING IN THEIR CYCLES ON MONDAY MORNING. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WARM FRONT SHOULD SHIFT INTO FAR EASTERN
MISSOURI, WHILE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND EXITING UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK, DAVA REGIME TAKES HOLD AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ELIMINATING
MOST OF THE RAIN POTENTIAL. WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
RESULT IN CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY IF THE WARM FRONT ENDS UP STALLING
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THURSDAY MID-AFTERNOON. A QUICK NOTE ON
TEMPERATURES, AREAS FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EASTWARD MAY SEE HIGHS
REACH IN THE LOWER 80S, AS THIS IS THE AREA THAT WILL NOT SEE AS
MUCH PRECIPITATION. AREAS FURTHER WEST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S, AND
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S, THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY BE ABLE
TO DO IT IF WAA CAN BRING ENOUGH WARM AIR PRIOR TO HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRING. THERE ARE FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY WHERE 80F IS
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE.
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEKEND, A DEEP CLOESD-LOW
SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL STALL
THE PROGRESS OF THE ADVANCING RIDGE AXIS, THOUGH MAY START TO
DEAMPLIFY WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EJECTING A FEW SHORT-
WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. RIGHT NOW THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WOULD DIRECT ANY MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUD COVER
EMANATE FROM THIS, AND PERHAPS COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MOVE
EASTWARD, BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. CURRENT
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR ANY KIND OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE ONLY
AROUND 15 PERCENT BETWEEN EASTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI, AND
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR A THRESHOLD OF 0.10 INCHES OF QPF.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AS THE COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE
MUCH FURTHER WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WEAK FLOW BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND 850MB SHOULD BE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO PROMOTE WEAK WAA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAT KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THIS RANGE. A FEW
DISTURBANCES THEN MAY SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
VFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY BETWEEN 5-10 KTS ACROSS
THE AREA. A DECREASE TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL START LATE TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE KC METRO TERMINALS PRIOR TO 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT IXD MAY SEE SOMETHING BETWEEN 10-12Z. MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE IN AFTER 12Z THURSDAY MORNING,
AND THAT MAY RESULT IN IFR CLOUD COVER, BUT MOST OF THESE
IMPACTS ARE OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT 12Z TAF PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...KRULL
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