697
FXUS63 KEAX 282341
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
641 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
-LOW END RAIN CHANGES THIS WEEKEND (MAINLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY)
-ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WE REMAIN CAUGHT BETWEEN DEEP
TROUGHING TO THE EAST AND RIDGING TO THE WEST. PREVIOUS FORECAST
INDICATED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING WITH WARM AIR SLIDING NORTH. HOWEVER THE RIDGE HAS MADE
LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND THE RIDGE HAS FLATTENED A BIT
KEEPING ALMOST ALL PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER MOVED OUT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CLEARER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 80
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO SLIGHT INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE
EXPANDING BACK NORTH. WE MAY BE ABLE TO GAIN ANOTHER DEGREES OR
TWO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
THE EXPECTED OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE CLOUD
COVER HAS LINGERED.
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN KEEPING THE FORECAST SIMILAR, THOUGH IT MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS
FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE NEARBY LEADING TO
CHANCES RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AS A MORE
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTH IN A NOW VERY AMPLIFIED
TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN.
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK, IT IS LOOKING AS THOUGH THROWING WILL
DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH REPEATED WAVES PUSHING
SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST
FLOW FOR THE AREA STARTING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 80 FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
WE WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A BROAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING RETURNING RAIN
CHANCES. IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES, WE WILL SEE A NOTABLE
SWING IN TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S WILL BE THE NORM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. TOMORROW
MORNING, THERE MAY A FEW POCKETS OF FOG. HOWEVER, LEFT OUT OF
THE TAF FOR NOW AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...COLLIER
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