771
FXUS63 KEAX 291933
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
233 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN BUILDS EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY FOR MOST,
BETTER CHANCES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, TRENDING COOLER NEXT
WEEK. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
BROAD UPPER RIDGING, OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US CURRENTLY, WILL BEGIN
TO BE SUPPRESSED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SATURDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. LOW
TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, MAINLY INTO KS
AND NE, BUT CLIPPING WESTERN MO, WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN MO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 0.01" IN THE 24
HOURS ENDING AT 4 PM SATURDAY, SHOW ONLY A 10-20% IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN MO AND EXTREME NE KS. BUT THOSE PROBABILITIES INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY MONDAY,
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY
IS WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FEEL A MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS IS
REASONABLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NEGLIGIBLE GIVEN
THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE
LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MO FRIDAY AM. IF WE SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW 40, THAT WOULD BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SO THIS IS VERY COOL AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF STJ, WHERE VALLEY FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THE THE
OTHER SITES, BUT WINDS MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH, THOUGH STILL
AROUND 5KTS, TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS A FEW DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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