165
FXUS63 KEAX 010023
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
723 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN MO, CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
LOW-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MO. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS ELONGATED TROUGH WERE AT LEAST THREE VORTICITY
MAXIMA. AS THESE AREAS OF VORTICITY MERGE AND TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST, AND AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES OVERNIGHT,
SHOWERS, WITH A FEW STORMS, WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THIS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WILL MOST NOTABLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN MO, WHERE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MORE FOCUSED
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST VORTICITY MAX. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK, WITH POTENTIALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE. SO EVEN WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO MAXIMIZE THOSE
PWATS ISN'T THERE. ADDITIONALLY, THE AREA HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY,
LEADING TO HIGHER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (FFG) VALUES. 1-HOUR FFG
FOR NORTHERN MO IS HIGHER THAN OUR TOTAL FORECAST QPF. SO WITH
THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION AND HIGHER FFG VALUES, THE THREAT OF
FLOODING IS VERY LOW. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WIND DOWN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY, AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
BY MIDWEEK, A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. LOCALLY, TEMPERATURES WARM BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING,
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. AND
STRONGLY VEERED, WESTERLY WINDS WON'T BE ABLE TO ADVECT BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SO CAPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. THAT SAID, WE MAY STILL SEE MLCAPE RANGE FROM 1000-2000
J/KG. WHILE THE STRONGEST SHEAR LOOKS POST-FRONTAL, THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH OVERLAP IN CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES, AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH, TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH VARIES FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA NEAR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO THE VICINITY OF THE MO RIVER
AT CI.
TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATED SINCE YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BUT MORE IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE
RATHER THAN THE 15-20+ DEGREE RANGE. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT'S A
RESULT OF THE COOLEST AND DRIEST AIR SHIFTING INTO IA AND IL AND
LIGHT WINDS VS CALM WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA, LIMITING THE
STRENGTH OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
MISSOURI. ACTIVITY MAY WANE A BIT LATER THIS EVENING, BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES BY AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING, ALONG
WITH MVFR CIGS. RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY END WITH CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER EVEN INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE EAST SHOULD PERSIST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...BMW
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