114
FXUS63 KEAX 111831
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
131 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE EXPECTED LATE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S F AND HEAT INDICIES APPROACHING 95-100 F IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
* MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY OVERNIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
A RELATIVELY SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE LOWER 48 LEADING TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND A WARMING PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. MILD TEMPERATURES CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT, EXPECT LOWS TO BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN MOISTURE, DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD BE WIDER LIMITING FOG
POTENTIAL.
15-20 KNOTS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN FROM 925/850HPA TOWARDS
THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY LEADING TO MARGINALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS. WITH
THE FLOW ORIGINATING IN WEST TEXAS VERSUS THE GULF EXPECT MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREEP UP ONLY SLIGHTLY KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. AS THE RIDGE NEAR THE
SURFACE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST, EXPECT FLOW TO DRAW A LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 90S F SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAT
INDICIES APPROACHING THE 95-100 F RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WHICH IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LREF ENSEMBLE.
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS NOTICEABLY EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EAST
COAST TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND WEST COAST TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL US PUSHES THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW NORTH, BUT
NORTHERN MISSOURI COULD GET CLIPPED BY CHANCES OF RAIN AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY NOCTURNAL CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATE INTO THE REGION EMANATING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERID. A FEW CUMULUS IN THE 4-5K FOOT
RANGE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH WILL
RAPIDLY DISCIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL
KEEP A WIDER SPREAD OF DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAKING FOG LESS
LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AFTER EXPECTED
TO MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE AFTER 15Z FRIDAY, CREATING GUSTY
CONDITIONS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT
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