255
FXUS63 KEAX 120925
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
425 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF LOWER END CHANCES FOR RAIN, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
H5 ANALYSIS OVERLAID WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A 593 DAM H5
HIGH OVER WEST TEXAS, WITH RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, OUR REGION RESIDES BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND WEST OF UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, 925
MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A 45+ KNOT SSW ORIENTED LLJ EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN OK UP THROUGH FARGO ND. A FEW ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS
ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH
ONE ROGUE SHOWER NEAR CAMERON AS OF 330 AM. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST, ESSENTIALLY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OUR CWA. THIS WILL
YIELD MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AS WELL AS INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH SSW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE EASTERLY
TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH IMPINGES FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY JUST
EAST OF OUR CWA, BUT SATURDAY IS LIKELY TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S TO MID
90S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE WESTERN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PIVOT INTO
THE DAKOTAS INTO NEBRASKA, POTENTIALLY TAKING ON A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT. OUR CWA WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE BETTER
DYNAMICS, BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS NE KANSAS
AND FAR NW MISSOURI. FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A ~590
DAM H5 HIGH IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OVER TEXAS, WITH SW MID
LEVEL FLOW AND PSEUDO UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A MID/UPPER LOW ACROSS MONTANA INTO
CANADIAN PLAINS AND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, WITH THE NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES SHOWING VERY
NARROW GOALPOSTS (AT MCI, 89 TO 91 DEGREES FOR 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE MAXT FOR MONDAY AND 88 TO 91 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY
MAXT). MID 90S WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
OZARK PLATEAU AND MID MISSOURI. DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND VERY LOW QPF ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR CONTINUES TO
SHOW D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA, WITH D1
(MODERATE DROUGHT) CREEPING CLOSE TO OUR CWA BOUNDARIES IN MID
MISSOURI. DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS WE HEAD TOWARD OCTOBER AND THE FALL FIRE WEATHER SEASON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A SMALL LINE OF STORMS TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AERODROMES DISSIPATING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. RECENT FORECAST UPDATES INCLUDE INCREASED SKY
COVERAGE WHICH HAS CHANGED THE WIND OUTLOOK THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS FRIDAY. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM SE TO S;
HOWEVER, HIGH BKN SKY COVERAGE LIMITS DIURNAL MIXING LOWERING
FORECASTED WIND GUSTS. THAT SAID GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
ISOLATED 25 KNOTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS
CURTAIL AFTER SUNSET.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...PESEL
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