739
FXUS63 KEAX 130415
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1115 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
* MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY EXASPERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL US WITH BOOKEND
TROUGHS ON BOTH OF THE COASTS. THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY SLOW EVOLVING PATTERN, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (10-15 DEGREES) EXTENDING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE
DIRECT FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE WESTERN GULF, LEADING TO A BIT MORE
ROBUST DEW POINTS SATURDAY LEADING TO SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED HEAT
INDICES THAN TODAY. HEAT INDICES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL APPROACH
100 F IN CENTRAL MISSOURI, WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER DEW POINTS FARTHER
WEST.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE GFS IS OVERMIXING, MANY OF THE OTHER SOLUTIONS STILL MIX TO AT
LEAST 800 MB. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING, BEST CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE THE CAP IS A BIT WEAKER. COVERAGE WOULD
BE RELATIVE SPARSE IN ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS. THIS COULD
INTENSIFY THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS (CURRENTLY D0) ACROSS THE
REGION LEADING INTO FALL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
BUILDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS COULD ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS (HIGHS NEAR 80, LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM
CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FLOW HAS BEEN DECOUPLING MORE GRADUALLY THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS LOWERING CONCERNS FOR LLWS BELOW MENTION THRESHOLDS.
THAT SAID, SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FROM
09-12Z THIS MORNING. WINDS THEN ACCELERATE BECOMING SW THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...PESEL
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