423
FXUS63 KEAX 140753
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
253 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S INTO
TUESDAY.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
(20- 30%) SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL AS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING
EXITING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY PRIMARILY FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-35. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGHING
EXITING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DEEPEN AND BEGIN TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. A
H500 SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS PRIMARILY FOR EASTERN KS AND NORTHWESTERN MO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IN REGARDS TO BOTH ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WEAK INSTABILITY (BELOW 500 J/KG), LIMITED SHEAR
(BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 25 KTS), AND AN OVERALL UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL KEEP SEVERE CHANCES VIRTUALLY
NON-EXISTENT. THE CONSENSUS FOR MOST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS
AND STORMS DISSIPATE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY. THE 00Z
HRRR SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERZEALOUS IN REGARDS TO COVERAGE AND
TIMING COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES AROUND UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE. THESE SHORTWAVES COULD PROVIDE A FEW SPOTTY CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS THE RIDGE
MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. APPROACHING MID-WEEK, STOUT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ENTERING THE GREAT PLAINS REGION WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY. ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GIVE US SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
TAFS THIS ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SITES. THAT SAID, SIMILAR CAVEATS TO THE
00Z DISCUSSION REMAIN. MID-UPPER WAVE LIFTING WEST OF THE AREA
REMAINS ANTICIPATED TO KEEP BULK OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY INTO
KANSAS. A NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY TOWARDS EASTERN MISSOURI
REMAINS EXPECTED TO INITIATE CONVECTION, WITH SOME POTENTIAL
WESTWARD BUILDING SIGNALED BY CAMS, BUT FALL SHORT OF REACHING
WESTERN MISSOURI. LASTLY, A FEW AIR-MASS THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI, BUT IS LOWEST CONFIDENCE OF
THE MENTIONED PRECIPITATION TRIGGERS. ALL THIS TO SAY,
CONFIDENCE IN AFFECTING THE TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE PROB30S OR OTHERWISE. SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP BY THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED AROUND 10KTS GUSTING INTO UPPER TEENS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...CURTIS
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