884
FXUS63 KEAX 150403
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S INTO
TUESDAY.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
(20- 30%) SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL AS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THIS AFTERNOON THE LOCAL AREA RESIDES IN BETWEEN A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO NEAR TO MO/IL STATE LINE. WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKING TO ROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT IS
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS MOSTLY WEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
TONIGHT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED JUST EAST OF THE AREA. LEAD SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS
TO REMAIN VERY UNSETTLED. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
CLOSED LOW IN IT BASE ACROSS NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SPEND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY VERY
SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THAT PERIOD. SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO IOWA AND FINALLY OPENS INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE
HOWEVER, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
DECAYING SHOWERS FROM ACTIVITY WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL
CONTINUE THEIR DECAY AS THE RUN INTO A VERY DRY AND INCREASINGLY
STABLE AIR MASS. AS SUCH, HAVE STRIPPED OUT ANY PROB30 -SHRA
MENTIONS. THUS, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW/SCATTERED AIR MASS TYPE CONVECTION TO OCCUR, BUT BEST
OPPORTUNITY LOOKS TO BE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
THERE TOO WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK BOUNDARY/AREA OF CONVERGENCE.
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE, HAVE KEPT THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF
CLEAR/VFR AS WELL.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CURTIS
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