953
FXUS63 KEAX 170338
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1038 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..UPDATED 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
* WELL NEEDED RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE INTERMOUNTAIN-WEST.
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
REX BLOCK ACROSS THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP THE PATTERN FAIRLY
STAGNANT LEADING TO SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN. UPPER TROUGH REMOVED
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO WYOMING IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ISOTROPIC ASSENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~2500 J/KG OF WEAKLY CAPPED CAPE ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS WEAK, THEREFORE STORM
MOTIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS FAVORING A
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS INCREDIBLY
ELEVATED (GENERALLY 3-4"/1 HR, 3-5+"/3-HR), AND WITH THE WEAK SHEAR,
EXPECT STORMS AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TO BE FAIRLY
SPOTTY. WITH SHEAR REMAINING VERY WEAK, EXPECT AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS
ONLY LASTING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO, THUS SELF LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING DESPITE SLOW STORM MOTION.
CAMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN STORMS CONTINUING TO PERCOLATE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND KEPT 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE EVENING
HOURS LARGELY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. AGREE WITH SPC ASSESSMENT THAT
THERE IS ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN THAT A WIND GUST OR TWO TO 50
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. ANY MOISTURE FROM THE
SPOTTY STORMS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING AND LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT.
WEAK SHORTWAVE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A RENEWED THUNDERSTORM THREAT ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE AGAIN, SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK LEADING
TO SLOW STORM MOTION. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE ACTIVITY.
WHILE THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN TODAY WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED FORCING, EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO
HOLD OFF TILL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION (AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES). WITH THAT SAID,
THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, AND WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE TROUGH STALLS OUT, THERE IS A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES,
BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
EXPECTING VFR CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH FROM ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WILL BE WATCHING FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASING TREND IN COVERAGE STARTING
AFTER 20Z IN EASTERN KANSAS, MOVING EASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MISSOURI. FOR NOW HAVE PLACED TSRA INTO PROB30 GROUPS FOR STJ
AND THE KC METRO TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...KRULL
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