300
FXUS63 KEAX 171120
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
620 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY INTO FRIDAY. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG.
- NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S) FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE U.S. WITH MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO TEXAS AND
CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE VA/NC BORDER AND WY. A H500
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW, OVER WY, HAS INITIATED A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL
KS. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE RELEASED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE
RESULTED IN A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH,
CLOSER TO OUR NORTHERN FRINGES (NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER). A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HWY-36 (PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NEAR ATCHISON [KS],
NODAWAY, AND WORTH COUNTIES). AS THE H500 SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRACK TO THE EAST, IT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE 05Z HRRR AND THE 00Z
NAMNST AGREE ON PRECIP REACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN CORNER AROUND
14Z. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT
GIVEN THE INCREDIBLY WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY INCREASES,
REFLECTED IN CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1,000-2,000 J/KG. AS OUR
CAP ERODES THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SUB-SEVERE
WINDS GUSTS AS STORMS COLLAPSE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIP STAYING NORTH OF I-70. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE
CONCERNED, HIGHS TODAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH TEMPERATURES AS INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE FROM PRECIPITATION
COULD HINDER THE EFFECTS OF DIURNAL HEATING. AREAS SOUTH OF
I-70, TOWARDS CENTRAL MO, WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN AREAS IN
NORTHWEST MO DUE TO THOSE AREAS BEING FARTHEST FROM CONVECTION.
FOR THURSDAY, THE LOW OVER WY BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH INTO ND.
ANOTHER H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND IT BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. A FEW ISOLATED
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH 20-30 KTS
OF SHEAR AND ~1,000-2,000 J/KG OF CAPE. AGAIN, CHANCES ARE FAIRLY
LOW, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. AGAIN, ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD IMPEDE THE EFFECTS OF
DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE H500
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND TRANSITIONS TO A CLOSED
H500 LOW. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE CLOSED H500 LOW PUSHES
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA YIELDING NEAR-SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S) FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS THE CLOSED H500 LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, HIGHER MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ON THE BACKSIDE WILL RESULT IN ABOVE-NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA, PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-70. DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION, LEFT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN A PROB30 GROUP. LATER THIS EVENING, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...COLLIER
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