745
FXUS63 KEAX 171955
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
255 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD.
- MULTIPLE PERIODS OF STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY - TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
A STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH-OVER-LOW
REX BLOCK OVER THE MIDDLE THE COUNTRY, IS KEEPING THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PLAINS UNSETTLED. EASTERN KS AND MO ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LOW OF THE REX AND THAT IS HELPING TO KEEP THE AREA WARMER
THAN NORMAL, FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THAT WARMTH IS ALSO LEADING TO
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA. AS I AM
WRITING THIS SENTENCE (1830Z) IT APPEARS THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT PUSHED EASTWARD EARLIER IS HELPING TO INITIATE NEW CONVECTION
FROM NEAR CLINTON, MO TO SE IA. WITH WEAK SHEAR, NEARLY 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AVAILABLE, AND AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING, STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD. THERE MAY ALSO
BE SOME SMALL HAIL, AND THE MOST ROBUST STORMS COULD PERHAPS PRODUCE
QUARTER SIZE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED
GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TO THE STORMS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THERE ARE MULTIPLE OTHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOW PORTION OF
THE REX BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
VORTICITY ADVECTION INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO WHICH HELPS
TO FORCE SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN
FORECAST CAPE, ABOUT 800 J/KG AT THE 10TH PERCENTILE, TO AROUND
2000 J/KG AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO HOW
STRONG STORMS MAY BE. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS SHOW RELATIVELY
STRONGER FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH,
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT STRONGER SHEAR. BUT EVEN THIS VARIES
SIGNIFICANTLY, ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF
ANY CONVECTION. WHEN LOOKING AT PROBABILITIES OF CAPE AND SHEAR,
IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT WE'LL HAVE THE COMBINATION NECESSARY FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION. BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEARLY 2000 J/KG
OF CAPE AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT/ EARLY SATURDAY, THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
AND NOSES INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS EARLY SATURDAY THAT MAY LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS (20-40%) INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
IT ISN'T UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT THAT A DRY PERIOD RETURNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
MULTIPLE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINALS, IN EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO, THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE AGAIN LOOKS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. SO HAVE JUST
MENTIONED A PROB30 GROUP FOR EACH SITE WITH THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING. OVERNIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE,
BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, LOCATION, AND
COVERAGE. ONE PERIOD OF TIME LOOKS LIKE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES, HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION WITH THIS FORECAST. AS
CERTAINTY INCREASES, THE FORECAST CAN BE AMENDED OR UPDATED.
OUTSIDE OF BRIEF VISIBILITY AND/OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS DURING
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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