721
FXUS63 KEAX 181143
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
643 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S) FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE U.S. IS DEFINED BY MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND TWO CLOSED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS (ONE OVER EASTERN MT
AND ONE OVER EASTERN SD). A H500 SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW OF THE
MORE SOUTHERLY LOW HAS PRODUCED A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE 850-300 MB MEAN WIND SUGGESTS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.
AS OF 08Z, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENTERED THE WESTERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES FARTHER
EAST, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DECAY AS THEY PROGRESS
NORTH-NORTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SEVERE REMAIN VERY LIMITED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR (BELOW 20 KTS) AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY (500-1,000 J/KG). AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
FORM ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASING INSTABILITY, REFLECTED IN
MUCAPE VALUES 1,000-2,000 J/KG, AND 25-35 KTS OF SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW
OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SMALL HAIL AS A SECONDARY THREAT. THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA (THE EXCEPTION BEING AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
MARYVILLE). GIVEN PWATS ARE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE (1.4-1.6
INCHES) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN. FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE ELEVATED FFG VALUES DUE TO RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 80S. HOWEVER, INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD IMPEDE THE EFFECTS OF
DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING THE LOWER END
OF THAT RANGE.
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING NEAR-SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. CHANCES FOR PRECIP RETURN IN THE EVENING AS THE TWO LOWS TO OUR
NORTHWEST COMMENCE IN A FUJIWHARA-TYPE EFFECT AS THEY SPIN
CYCLONICALLY AROUND EACH OTHER. THE SECONDARY LOW PUSHES A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SPOTTY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP AND LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS,
AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER EAST, WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY (AS OF 11Z)
SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN MO. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS ARE
VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR. AREAS EAST OF I-35, ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY-36 ALSO HAVE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN MOSTLY WEAK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY WIND GUSTS FROM
STORMS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...COLLIER
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