887  
FXUS63 KEAX 051809  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
109 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY TODAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH  
ARE ANTICIPATED. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS DO BRING MARGINAL  
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS KS AND NE  
SHIFTING INTO NW MO OVERNIGHT. MOST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM LAMONI, IA THROUGH TOPEKA, KS.  
 
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION  
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED WITH THE  
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA CONTINUING TO SEE THE HIGHEST  
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN LOW.  
 
- MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY WEEK WITH  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S BY THE END OF  
THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
 
MORE OF THE SAME FOR SUNDAY AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY  
WINDS CONTINUE. RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS LOSING ITS HOLD  
AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS COMPRESSING RESULTING IN WARM  
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS STARTING YESTERDAY AND LOOKING TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ATTEMPTS TO OPEN UP TO  
THE GULF; HOWEVER, A CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE LA GULF COAST TRUNCATES  
THIS CONNECTION KEEPING STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AT  
BAY. HOWEVER, CLEAR SKIES AND SOLAR HEATING WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH  
TO ASCEND HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90 DEGREES. GUSTY  
WINDS AROUND 25-35 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY INDICATION OF THE  
TROUGHS APPROACH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LIKE YESTERDAY,  
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR HARVEST CROPS AND CHAFF  
COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS DO PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR  
FIELD AND BRUSH FIRES. PLEASE BE COGNIZANT OF THIS IF CONDUCTING  
AND AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION  
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  
 
THE BROADSCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS MADE UP  
OF SEVERAL EXPANSIVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE PRIMARY  
TROUGH AXIS. THE INITIAL TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE LIFTING  
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS DROPPING A EXTENSIVE FRONT WHICH  
CURRENTLY EXTENDS INTO SE CO AND NE NM. THE HIGH TO THE EAST  
PUTS UP A VALIANT RESISTANCE TO THE PROGRESSING FRONT ADDING  
MORE POSITIVE TILT; HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PROGRESS  
INTO THE REGION BY SUNSET. ALOFT, THE ENTRANCE OF A 500MB JET  
STREAK ASSEMBLES ABOVE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH SEVERAL POCKETS  
OF CVA EMBEDDING IN THE FLOW. 850MB FLOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE  
TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR ACROSS WEST TX. THIS HELPS INITIATE  
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN IA, NORTHWEST MO, SOUTHEAST NE, AND  
NORTHERN KS PRIMARILY AFTER SUNSET. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS  
EXPECTED TO START ISOLATED BECOMING SCATTERED WITH STORMS TRYING  
TO FILL A LINE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOST ALL PRECIPITABLE  
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED NORTH AND  
WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAMONI, IA THROUGH ST. JOSEPH, MO  
OUT TOWARD MANHATTAN, KS. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY  
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE  
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.  
 
THE SURFACE FRONT EVENTUALLY BREAKS THROUGH THE RESISTANCE OF THE  
HIGH TO THE EAST AROUND 1 AM. MODELS SUGGEST A RATHER COMPLEX  
DYNAMICAL PICTURE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COMPONENTS OF THE COLD FRONT  
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO. COMPLICATING  
THIS IS AN ANTICIPATED LEEWARD TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS NW TX ADDING  
FURTHER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS IS GOING TO MANIFEST ITSELF WITH  
STORMS DETACHING FROM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT BECOMING POST-FRONTAL  
AND ELEVATED. SUSTAINED CVA ALOFT AND THE RELATIVELY STATIONARY  
POSITION OF THE 500MB JET STREAK ENTRANCE REGION WITH ENHANCEMENT  
FROM THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET LOOK TO MAINTAIN THESE POST-FRONTAL  
STORMS.  
 
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY THE 500MB TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD SPREADING  
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN  
SCATTERED WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS NW MO AND EASTERN KS  
WITH MORE SCATTERED CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL MO. CONVECTIVE VARIABLES  
REMAIN RATHER WEAK; HOWEVER, SOLAR HEATING AHEAD OF STORMS' ARRIVAL  
TO CENTRAL MO DOES INDICATE SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY AND WITH 0-  
3KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KNOTS COULD PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR  
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM.  
 
MONDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE MAP WILL DISPLAY THE STARK CHANGE THAT IS  
ANTICIPATED RAIN COOLED PORTIONS OF NW MO AND NE KS WILL ONLY REACH  
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE OZARKS AND  
INTERIOR MO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY TUESDAY, MOST EVERYONE  
WILL SHIFT BACK TO MORE EXPECTED FALL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ACROSS  
THE REGION IN THE MID-60S TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER AS  
THE WEEK CONTINUES, REACHING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S BY THE END OF THE  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 20-27 KTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN  
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NOW,  
LEFT -TSRA IN A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE KSTJ, KMCI, AND KMKC AS  
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...PESEL  
AVIATION...COLLIER  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MO Page
The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page